[tuyiown]

You forgot the most important part, one's own model is not only probabilistic, it's also (more or less) forever challenged by reasoning to stabilize to some kind of self consistency. This refinement is critical and its mechanics still eludes everyone AFAIK.

[AstralStorm]

Most people do not challenge theirs by reasoning, only by social approval - and that's easy to game.

That's why they turn 180 or radicalize badly when exposed to sufficiently strong social or usual media.