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by johnfn 295 days ago
Genuine curiosity: how do you know that software is in a recession? What measures do you use to determine this? And how do you know that the recession is not AI driven? I don't think it is either, but it's more of a feeling; I'm not sure how I would make that argument more grounded.
2 comments

Well, the best measurement is hiring slowdown and bankruptcies. Bankruptcies in the US are up 13.1%.

Traditionally, you wouldn't look at the release of a productivity tool coinciding with a hiring slowdown and assume that it's automation causing the hiring slowdown, your first instinct would be that the sector is not doing well.

Check sum of free cash flow of major tech co.s. you'll soon find out that the cash needle of industry as a whole is not moving that much.

They are just round tripping the cash that was sitting in their accounts through investments that make their way back through advertising channels or compute channels.

Once you see the bigger picture, you'll realise its all just a Fugazi post covid