[tedsanders]

Except the housing bubble wasn't actually a bubble. Housing prices today are much higher than in 2007. Based on realized results, the mispricing wasn't the peak of the housing bubble but the trough of the crash. With the benefit of hindsight, the peak actually undervalued how expensive housing would get. (Speaking about the US market in aggregate. Not other countries, nor localities like Las Vegas where the case for a bubble is stronger.)

[klipt]

The price of housing is ultimately a political choice. If voters choose to restrict supply of housing through zoning and other laws, prices can be pushed up hugely.

[laughing_man]

I doubt zoning has any real effect. Henry George realized in the 19th century that if you increase the money supply most of that money goes into driving up the cost of real estate. And the government has been printing money like crazy for decades now.

Where I live there aren't too many restrictions on housing, but a developer friend tells me he can barely make a profit at current prices because of 1) the cost of the land and 2) modern building codes make housing a lot more expensive. You can have cheaper houses if you're willing to give up things like the insulation that forces builders to use 2x6s instead of 2x4s for exterior framing.

That NIMBY stuff is mostly a problem for pricing if you want to live in a big city.

[laughing_man]

If you adjust your chart for inflation you see a big peak in 2025 and another in 2022. The trough of the crash matches the historical trend.

Yes, the price of housing is crazy. But so is the price of eggs.

[laughing_man]

Eh.. "peak in 2005 and another in 2022"

[DonsDiscountGas]

Yes it was a bubble. (Also a much larger related credit bubble). A big run up followed by a crash. Many companies went under, many people suffered. The fact that prices recovered a decade later doesn't change any of that.