[vesinisa]

But is that really happening? If that was actually true, Trump would obviously have no leg to stand on. But what we have seen instead is exactly the opposite - countries are scrambling to strike "trade deals" with Trump no matter how terrible terms they get (like the one-way 15% tariff EU "achieved".)

There is really no downside at all for Trump. If it actually starts hurting US economy at any point, he can easily just signal reversing the policy and everyone will let out a big sigh of relief and markets rebound. If it causes some long-term harm for US, he will be long gone by then. But if he is succesful in establishing a new US-first world order he will be forever remembered as one of the greatest American presidents in history.

[AlecSchueler]

Yes, it is happening, in both business and political spheres. You're maybe making the mistake of looking only at the very short term while forgetting how entrenched these systems are. There can't be overnight changes, right now the world has is forced to "play along."

I'm not sure where to start with giving you sources for actions being taken because it seems that you want things to have already changed before you believe it. You've surely read any the strengthening of intra-EU defence arrangements? Things like that mean that in the future the US won't be able to bully for leverage like they are today. It's short term versus long term thinking.

Also not sure what "actually starts hurting" the economy means. Is the hurt that's been caused so far not actual hurt? No true Scotsman economics.

[vesinisa]

Surely the S&P 500 index regularly closing at all-time-high levels while this "hurting" was unfolding is a valid counterpoint?

Meanwhile, all European stock indices continue to underperform their American counterparts. The return on STOXX Europe 600 index over the past 10 years has been about 58%. The S&P 500 in this same period returned 237%, and more importantly has continued to outperform STOXX Europe 600 throuhgout 2025. Surely investors would be abandoning the US stock market like rats on a sinking ship if Trump was wrecking the US economy?

> Things like that mean that in the future the US won't be able to bully for leverage like they are today.

I would fully applaud this, if it actually does happen. But so far European defence co-operation has been and continues to be weak and incoherent. It is most blatantly apparent in how Hungary and now Slovakia have been able to derail EU-level co-operation in supporting Ukraine.

However I must admit the recent €600 Billion defence package is one rare step to seemingly right direction.

[AlecSchueler]

> Surely the S&P 500 index regularly closing at all-time-high levels while this "hurting" was unfolding is a valid counterpoint?

If you presuppose that the markets are both rational and moral then maybe. But when the president of the US is using his personal social media website to tell people when to buy and sell before he rolls the dice it becomes difficult to take this point seriously.

> But so far European defence co-operation has been and continues to be weak and incoherent.

That's exactly the point, there are now more meetings than ever about resolving these issues because the old hegemony can no longer be relied on, Denmark is having to ask repeatedly for clarifications on the constant threats to invade Greenland... Again, you're expecting things to change overnight when policy changes at this level take years to implement.

> It is most blatantly apparent in how Hungary and now Slovakia have been able to derail EU-level co-operation in supporting Ukraine.

Is it? That doesn't seem to have any bearing at all on the topic at hand. Just because Hungary has gone rogue at the behest of mother Russia doesn't in any way suggest the rest of the EU aren't turning away from the US.

> However I must admit the recent €600 Billion defence package is one rare step to seemingly right direction.

Yes, you could even say it's evidence of the move towards more cohesion in the future following events which only took place several months ago...

[judahmeek]

The disentangling will be gradual & organic. It'll be the fear that the U.S. can shut down weapons they have sold that are used without the U.S.'s explicit permission. It'll be the fact that Trump raises tariffs over tech regulation & internal criminal cases. It'll be because few will consider the U.S. a reliable partner for trade & military support. It'll be because the U.S.'s own tariffs will raise the prices of American products & services to uncompetitive levels and what American brands don't suffer from such inflation will still suffer from association with the U.S. itself.

Trump does have additional leverage in the fact that the dollar is the global reserve currency, but he's actively testing how much friction he can introduce into the global trade system before that changes.

On that note, it's interesting that every country Trump has targeted for higher tariffs (China, Brazil, India) is a member of BRICS.