[ehnto]

I think the allure of humanoid robots is that they are drop in replacements for agents in a world desgined for humans.

If you want your robot to be a helper around the general populations houses for example, you would aim to make a general purpose bot capable of stairs, ladders, lying down, reaching high, stepping over things, holding awkward weights and loads while doing all of the above. Pinch, twist, push, pull, in all degrees of motion a human has etc.

[xg15]

Completely off-topic: I find it odd that we easily use this argument for humanoid robots (and also self-driving cars), but handicapped people are still bound to wheelchairs and have to constantly fight to change the environment and make it wheelchair-accessible.

If we applied the same logic, there should be a massive effort to ditch wheelchairs and build exoskeletons instead.

[Freak_NL]

For disabled people who can use their arms and propel themselves, a wheelchair is low-maintenance, dependable, repairable, self-powered, and generic enough for there to be a healthy market and not too much vendor lock-in. Wheelchairs are not necessarily low-tech, but they are fully understandable. If the user of a wheelchair is unable to move themself for whatever reason, any able bodied person can step in and push. These things matter in any situation I think, but they matter even more in an emergency or a war zone.

Exoskeletons can't match that.

[Fargren]

All of those are arguments for why robots should generally have wheels rather than legs, except for when legs are specifically needed.

[electroly]

Furthermore, mobile robots currently in home use--vacuum and mop robots--are all wheeled, of course. We've shown we can accommodate wheeled robots in the home if we feel like the payoff is worth it.

[ehnto]

Well I think wheels match the use case there, a small bot close to the ground with just the one job. I think there will be many wheeled bots to begin with. But long term I don't see that form factor scaling to "able to do all tasks around the house".

It's super easy to come up with scenarios that a wheeled bot can't cope with, but again "good enough, cheap enough" will probably see lots of wheeled bots on the market. I am just trying to show why the pioneering companies would be interested in bipedal bots, it's a long term play.

Lastly, the elephant in the room is that basically all general purpose bots are a euphemism for military bots that will need to operate in unknowable conditions.

[Jensson]

> except for when legs are specifically needed.

Exactly, we need legs when they are specifically needed, and we already have wheeled robots so building legged robots that can move like a human will cover so many cases we currently cannot cover.

And even more important are arms and hands, and legs is a precursor to that, they are much simpler so its smart to start with legs to then try to make good arms and hands.

[ffsm8]

Give me the option of a humanoid looking across that takes care of all in house chores and one that's that utility based with wheels and arms, I will likely choose the humanoid one even with a 100% premium price.

I mean I wouldn't buy either unless I could be certain it's not uploading all data to the cloud and be fully controlled by a user hostile company, but if we're talking fantasy tech ala Detroit: become human... Yeah, it'd be willing to spend a lot of money to have all chores taken care of by a humanoid robot.

And in before someone talks nonsense again wrt "you already can, just pay someone to do it for you"... I do not want to have strangers in my home. This is also essentially why I wouldn't want any cloud connected bot anywhere innit.

[ehnto]

The cloud situation is where it's probably going to fall down at first (haha). I don't see companies choosing to offer local model integration over the possibility of using the robot as a loss leader to a long term subscription model for access to the compute/inference.

But that's going to be hilarious. Imagine your internet goes down while the bot is half way down your stairs, or the in the middle of pouring a drink. Very fun.

[msgodel]

I'd say the same thing about mobile robots, especially since ADA means most of the public environment should be relatively accessible.

[fhd2]

Much like wheelchairs vs exo skeletons, the simpler (and cheaper) tech tends to win. I'd imagine in a future where robots are everywhere, they'll use whatever cheap locomotion is appropriate for their tasks, probably predominantly wheels. It's a fun vision to imagine bipedal robots everywhere like in old sci movies, but I'm not convinced that's how it'll play out, the economics don't make that much sense.

Bipedal robots are more expensive to develop, build and maintain, more limited in their payloads, and because of the additional complexity, less reliable.

[throwawayqqq11]

Cost will be the reason why these over engineered robots fail. Cost is the reason why indoor vertical farms fail, even though in their case, the environment is controlled and the tech is relatively simple compared to omnipotent field robots.

The most viable use case of AI is bullshiting humans, which is still a multi-billion market. Infrastructure hooray!

[fhd2]

I look at this a bit more generously: We're pushing the boundaries of what's technically possible. At least for niche use cases, I'm convinced bipedal robots and GenAI will have lasting value. Are they the next automobile / electricity / smartphone? I'm sceptical.

[Mountain_Skies]

Reminds me of some of the early designs imagined for automatic dishwashers which had articulated arms and hands. The dishwashers we have are nothing like what was envisioned by those early designs. It just takes some time to break out of the pattern of thinking that the recent past imposed due to the technology of that time.

[mcny]

> If we applied the same logic, there should be a massive effort to ditch wheelchairs and build exoskeletons instead.

Knowing the kind of markup on wheelchairs that means a YouTuber wheel chair look like a bargain (see Jerry rig everything wheelchair), I can't imagine how much the US healthcare "industry" would charge for a "medical grade" exoskeleton.

[aetherson]

There just aren't that many people in wheelchairs. There's not a lot of TAM in trying to build a better wheelchair that involves a huge capex.

So instead the government gets involved and demands a change to built environment instead of a speculative bet on the idea of a new technology.

[ehnto]

I hear you, I think there's some obvious points you've already considered on price and serviceability. But maybe we do see that coming soon? Exoskeletons currently require some mobility from the legs from the user in the products available today, but as automatic bipedal motion gets more reliable maybe that changes.

I have seen how robots currently behave when they lose their footing though, and I'd be bloody terrified to be strapped into one.

Maybe wheelchair users and robot manufacturers can share a force for getting wheeled locomotion into more spaces, but I think homes will always be a challenge as stairs are a requirement for denser living, and elevators are expensive.

[lm28469]

I love how most people can't even afford a car without taking loans but we're talking about personal robot assistants as if it was right around the corner and the natural evolution of things

[ehnto]

With the wealth gap increasing ever further, I think we will see technology in lock step with that divide.

I doubt robots will actually end up in every household, but a niche luxury product and utility for businesses makes some sense. Even if you think about it from that perspective, robot makers would still want them to be a universal robot not dozens of unique use case bots.

If a business can pay 30k for a general purpose extra set of hands I think that would be a no brainer, and I think the wealthy would see it similarly.

[LarsDu88]

As wealth becomes more skewed, it won't matter that most people can't afford a robot butler. The smaller proportion of people with the majority of the wealth will make it worthwhile.

[rafaelmn]

>I doubt robots will actually end up in every household, but a niche luxury product and utility for businesses makes some sense.

Sounds like a limited market/growth potential, hard to amortize the huge R&D etc. Could happen but will never justify the current levels of investment required.

[liveoneggs]

Increasing wealth inequality will increase this type of thing. William Gibson novels explain it.

[Jensson]

Such robots aren't more expensive than cars though, you can buy a humanoid robot today for a fraction of the cost of a car. They lack intelligence but they can move around.

[ModernMech]

The allure of humanoid robots is they don't have human rights while being able to replace humans. If it turns out that they end up being conscious, their lack of humanity will be all humans need to justify enslaving them. See: animals.