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by turnsout 305 days ago
> “When will the internet bubble burst?” the cover story of Barron’s asked on March 20 2000. “That unpleasant popping sound is likely to be heard before the end of this year.”

Again—the internet was a bubble, and yet it eventually far surpassed even the frothiest expectations.

If you're investing for the short-term, do what you gotta do. The AI bubble will burst and lots of superficial companies will be washed away. But we're just getting started. This next wave will make a new round of companies like Netflix, Amazon, Apple, etc.
2 comments
bryanlarsen 305 days ago
If your portfolio of 100 internet companies in 2000 included 99 that went under and AMZN, you'd still be well above water after many years of being below water.

The problem today is that essentially nobody IPO's anymore so it's basically impossible to own 100 AI companies to ensure you include the next AMZN. NVDA is likely the CSCO of AI companies, but what's the AMZN?

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rootnod3 305 days ago
The internet as a platform or network survived, but most of the big players in the bubble went down. Only the veeeeery big ones survived due to enough residual funds and the smaller players that didn't have a big enough claim yet.
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turnsout 305 days ago
Exactly—it's going to be the same this time. That's how bubbles do.

What I'm trying to express is that when people say "AI is a bubble," the don't understand that AI will actually survive that bubble, even if many "AI companies" do not.

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rootnod3 305 days ago
I don't think so. Most companies that went under in the 90's bubble are definitely not doing well today. Lycos? The stuff that survived was 99% stuff that didn't have to rely on the bubble to begin with. MS or Oracle were doing fine even with the bubble bursting because their core business was not relying on it. But if the AI bubble burst, the AI shops are gonna go bye bye.
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turnsout 305 days ago
If you read my comment, I agree with you; the AI bubble is going to burst, and AI companies will go out of business. And yet, AI will be more important than ever 10-15 years from now.

Just because the bubble is going to burst does not mean the technology will go away. That didn't happen to the internet, and it won't happen to AI.

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