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by PessimalDecimal 299 days ago
Even then, wouldn't its uncertainty be about the probability of the output given the input? That's different from probability of being correct in some factual sense. At least for this class of models.
1 comments

There are many types of model uncertainty, but factual errors should play a role in conditional uncertainties. If you do it right, then you can report when the output is truly veering into out-of-distribution territory.