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by ModernMech
301 days ago
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> I give myself 6-18 months before I think top-performing LLM's can do 80% of the day-to-day issues I'm assigned. This is going to age like "full self driving cars in 5 years". Yeah it'll gain capabilities, maybe it does do 80% of the work, but it still can't really drive itself, so it ultimately won't replace you like people are predicting. The money train assures that AGI/FSD will always be 6-18 months away, despite no clear path to solving glaring, perennial problems like the article points out. |
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I vividly remember when some folks from Microsoft come to my school to give a talk at some Computer Science event and proclaimed that yep, we have working AGI, the only limiting factor is hardware, but that should be resolved in about ten years.
This was in 2001.
Some grifts in technology are eternal.