[trevor99]

"It means the probability of a startup making it really big is not merely not a constant fraction of the probability that it will succeed, but that the startups with a high probability of the former will seem to have a disproportionately low probability of the latter."

The "not merely not" phrase here is a little confusing. What PG is saying is that the probability of it succeeding is inversely related to the probability of it being a big success?