[angmarsbane]

This pattern has been disrupted because of the decades of under-building. The neighborhood I grew up in around an elementary school is populated by empty nesters and has been for over a decade. There is nowhere for the empty nesters to downsize into that isn't 3-5x what their mortgage is on their family sized home (in CA we also have the complicated of Prop 13 on property taxes) so they aren't moving. My highschool recently shut down because there weren't enough families in the neighborhood around it anymore.

[UtopiaPunk]

I think things are breaking, for sure, but how badly and in what ways is very local. To your point (and my point, a bit), with current market conditions, many homeowners are staying in their homes rather than moving. We had a pretty long period of very mortgage rates, and now rates are higher. Home prices have not decreased, either. So someone with a home that is a little too big has something valuable that they want to hang to, and buying a smaller house is, at least for now, not necessarily a good financial decision. But if housing were not an investment, a elderly retired couple could just move to a smaller house and not think too much about it. But it is an investment, so they stay in their unnecessarily large house hoping the market changes in their favor.