[Uehreka]

> The trades are a decent living, and lots of people could do worse.

I sure hope this remains true after the number of people trying to become electricians quintuples in size.

I feel like in a lot of these discussions, people think about themselves first and go “I’ll just become an electrician if my white collar job goes away, how bad could it be?” But then you need to realize that many many people are going to have this problem, and the phrasing “Well, we’ll all just become electricians if our white collar jobs go away.” doesn’t have the same ring to it.

It’s not enough for there to EXIST non-automatable jobs. The demand for those jobs must be so massive that a gigantic number of currently well-paid people can take jobs in the sector without massively depressing wages.

[teeray]

I think locality is the difference. Electricians and Plumbers are needed basically everywhere. Conversely, there’s not much of a local market for bespoke software development in random towns in the US. While, yes, there are various contractors with statewide coverage, Joe-with-a-pickup-truck who treats the neighbors right in town still wins out many times.

[moltar]

But you need to realize that both professions aren’t valued the same everywhere.

In my childhood in the Soviet Union “plumber” was what parents scared their kids with “if you don’t study, you’ll become a plumber”. And that profession was extremely undesirable and didn’t pay well.

Also in many SEA countries both professions aren’t paid well.

I think in North America it’s different because it’s highly regulated and barrier for entry is high.

[Uehreka]

I think a lot of people in America talk about plumbers as this sort of “aspirational blue-collar job” because they forget how dirty it is. Like, the usual boomer framing is to talk about how you know a guy who makes $100K as a plumber, mumble something about unions and then go “100K to fix sinks sure sounds nice”.

What that framing misses is that a lot of plumbers have to fix situations where a sewer line ruptured and someone’s basement is covered in shit. Or like, you get called in because someone’s garbage disposal is clogged with something nasty, and the person won’t tell you what it is. Plumbers definitely should get paid a lot for what they do, though whether that’s actual true varies.

[mothballed]

This is why being a septic guy seems like a good gig. I paid my septic guy $10k for one day's labor, with about $4k in materials to come in with a massive excavator and one helper.

I'm sure the cost of his excavator ran into ~$1k of wear/depreciation over that day but two men basically cleared $5k in a combined 20 man hours.

If you can deal with poop you can make a lot of money. Doesn't seem to be much interest in that trade either, no one thinks to become a septic installer.

[Tadpole9181]

I can't believe nobody has brought this up, but the threat isn't even that there will be too many electricians. The threat is the question: "who is going to pay for these electricians at all?"

It's such a privileged first world attitude to just assume that no matter how bad it gets, we'll always have all this money to pay for expert labor for our homes and businesses.

The idea never even comes up that if the economy gets pushed too far and the middle class truly disappears, nobody can afford a plumber or an electrician. You either make do or go without. And that entire sector of work crumbles too, which creates a feedback loop for economic failure.

That why we call it a house of cards.

[nopinsight]

Humans being who they are, there's still a tremendous amount of work to do in this world (and beyond).

Does everyone alive already have the best quality of life imaginable, not to mention future generations?

Lump of Labor fallacy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lump_of_labour_fallacy

Comparative Advantage: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparative_advantage

*The key challenge* we all share is making the transition as smooth as possible for everyone involved.

[dzink]

The big upside here is that more web designers make more web sites, but more electricians and crafts people make more houses eventually (whatever is most valuable) and we can use more of that.

[shit_game]

More tradespeople don't make more housing, capital and legislation do. Both capital and legislators (a disturbing number of whom are either landlords or realestate tycoons) are perversely incentivised to keep housing supplies low because that creates a market in which housing appreciates and generates more income than a market in which housing is plentiful.

[tsunamifury]

This isn’t just housing. After Covid the entire market for everything complex or needed shifted to demand side.

Build less charge more applies to practically everything.

[Uehreka]

People need to stop with this whole “more people on $job means more of $product” thing. I know that’s what they teach in freshmen economics, but it’s almost never true in reality.

[dzink]

The reality is that if you have a skill and there are no jobs, if the skill is something you can practice on your own as a freelancer or entrepreneur, you will do it. And if your skill allows you to make something that disproportionately earns a lot of money, like housing, you will see people doing it. I come from the future - Eastern Europe, a place that endured extreme hyperinflation, poverty, and started generating growth again not long ago.

[pllbnk]

Also, a lot of the blue collar income comes from white collar people whose purchasing power is the main factor how much they can be charged.

[insane_dreamer]

Not only that, but enough people need to be earning money outside of the trades to be able to afford to pay for the services of those in the trades.

It's like the economic version of "who will watch the watchers"?