[scottjg]

In May, Newark airport flights were on time 49% of the time: https://www.transtats.bts.gov/ot_delay/OT_DelayCause1.asp?20...

Maybe in aggregate flights have fewer delays but every single flight I’ve taken this year has been delayed (on top of the padded flight times the article mentions). I’ve flown about half a dozen trips.

I also hate the argument that the free market should solve the pricing problem. Airlines have exclusivity on airport gates. Any frequent flier on the SFO -> EWR route knows that if you want to save money you can book an Alaska flight instead of United but Alaska has significantly fewer gates and usually gets delayed when arriving waiting for one. Flights aren’t exactly equal commodities and even if the airlines were well-run, contracts for these gates are locked in.

Pricing stats here also fail to account for business class vs economy pricing. Business class prices on tickets have skyrocketed, way outstripping purported CPI. In some cases prices have doubled or more since COVID.

[avar]

Perhaps the free market is solving the pricing/timeliness problem, but your fellow travelers value lower prices more than being on time?

    > Business class prices on
    > tickets have skyrocketed

The people with more disposable income who are subsidizing air travel for the rest of us are giving us an even larger subsidy these days? I feel just terrible about that.

[cmcaleer]

It’s not that simple. Business is representing an ever increasing % of travellers, so airlines are increasing the % of business class seating, leaving fewer seats for economy seating and therefore less availability in economy, so you might not even end up seeing the savings in your flight ticket since more economy passengers are competing with each other.

[conductr]

They're degrading economy to the point where people feel like they have to upgrade. I'm not that tall or large but I can no longer tolerate American's economy seating, my knees are jammed into the seat in front of me before they recline, it's down right painful if they choose to recline.

Live in DFW, which is an American hub and my largest option for direct flights and flight availability in general which is why I mention them

[HDThoreaun]

If this was true they would raise economy prices.

[jdminhbg]

> Business is representing an ever increasing % of travellers

Is it? I thought that trend reversed in 2020.

[apetresc]

I’m not sure you can accurately track any airline-related trend through the years 2021-2023, for obvious reasons.

[scarface_74]

It’s not people buying first class most of the time. It’s business travelers getting reimbursed.

[mrguyorama]

>The people with more disposable income

Business class tickets are bought by companies not people. You pay for that "subsidy" through more expensive products to pay for that exec's stupid flight to a symposium where they all talk about how great they are and how important their ideas are.

[Sohcahtoa82]

Every time I've flown First/Business class, it's been out of my own pocket. Every time I've had my employer pay for a flight, it's been in cattle class.

Now I'm wondering what percentage of people in First/Business class are paying for the flight themselves.

[toast0]

My current employer lets me expense flights so that I book in First and they pay what it would have cost in cattle. Might be worth it?

Otoh, I have minor elite status and have gotten upgraded to cattle plus the last couple flights which might be nice enough.

[scarface_74]

I fly frequently on average more than once a month and I really don’t see the benefit of first class for domestic flights. I am short though. I’m good with exit row seats.

We aren’t budget travelers and we have been on a plane for leisure 12+ times a year since 2021. We are both Platinum Medallion on Delta and get automatic C+ upgrades at time of booking and enjoy our lounge access (via credit cards).

[ghaff]

Domestic at least, I expect a lot is upgrades for status travelers (who have flown a lot of it on company expense accounts). At least that's my experience.

In semi-retirement, I probably do need to burn down my points though.

[notahacker]

I think the average flyer can be pretty confident that they're saving more on the flight than the incremental addition to their grocery bills attributable to company executives' flight costs...

[Der_Einzige]

YUP! As usual HN downvotes the truth! I have NEVER seen a business who is willing to let people actually travel in business class outside of the C suite and even then I've seen them refuse it for C suite!!!

This includes for people making 500K+ a year. Still forced to sit in coach unless they pay out of pocket.

Normies ruined business class. Can't get business class tickets on international flights for anything less than 10X and often more like 20X the price of economy. It should be no more than 4X.

[labcomputer]

> Pricing stats here also fail to account for business class vs economy pricing. Business class prices on tickets have skyrocketed, way outstripping purported CPI. In some cases prices have doubled or more since COVID.

Sure, but business class is still 100% full (and frequent fliers complain that they aren't getting upgrades, so it seems to be mostly paid).

This is like when companies complain that they can't find any good devs, but don't want to pay market rate.

[notahacker]

> I also hate the argument that the free market should solve the pricing problem.

It's odd that in his rush to point the finger at the government monopoly, he seems to have missed that a free market where customers select flights mostly on price naturally tends towards airlines operating lower cruise speeds for better operating economy, and not allowing loads of wiggle room in their schedules to make up for delays.

The idea that actually the real reason why aircraft are operating more slowly and delayed more is because there aren't enough ATCs in position doesn't pass the sniff test at all for anyone that knows the slightest thing about commercial aviation

[labcomputer]

> The idea that actually the real reason why aircraft are operating more slowly and delayed more is because there aren't enough ATCs in position doesn't pass the sniff test at all for anyone that knows the slightest thing about commercial aviation

Well... I mean, objectively, there are not enough ATCs. Staff are being scheduled 6 days a week. Towers at small airports are operating on reduced hours because there aren't enough people, and towers are some airports are being operated with less than full staff (so each person is working multiple tasks).

Whether or not the very real staff shortage is what is causing the delays is not 100% clear. My intuition is that it is, but I don't have any actual data to support that.

[dghlsakjg]

Pilot here:

Ground delays due to ATC staffing shortages are real. It’s not a secret, statistics about it are kept.

Off the top of my head, it is has affected Austin, Newark and most major destinations in Canada this year. That is not an exhaustive list by any means.

[notahacker]

They're real and tracked, but they're also not the main reason why airlines aren't on time, or any sort of reason for lower cruise speeds.

We've got percentages for delays attributed to the National Aviation System (including those for reasons other than ATC understaffing, like congestion management) here[1], it's less than half of those attributed to the carrier, with a slight trend fall. That doesn't mean ATC understaffing isn't a problem (patching gaps in shift patterns is bad for a whole bunch of safety related reasons, for a start), it means that the author is dead wrong that airlines won't do anything to jeopardise on time performance and government must be the only bottleneck. [1]https://www.bts.gov/browse-statistical-products-and-data/inf...

[dghlsakjg]

The author did not claim that the entire or the main reason for longer flight times was ATC delays. He wouldn’t be dead wrong if he had made that claim since as you note, ATC delays are higher than they were in the 90s. But he didn’t make the claim that ATC was the full and only cause of delays.

His conclusion is that there are a multitude of causes, among them, ATC staffing delays.

[notahacker]

The author explicitly dismissed the idea of "greedy airlines" as not passing his "sniff test" whilst the data shows their own actions are a more frequent culprit for delays than aviation services (be they ATC shortages or congestion, which combined only account for <20% of the delays; unlikely to cause of a fourfold increase in long delays by themselves never mind be a reason for slower cruising speeds).

I doubt an economist a little less enthusiastic about the ability of markets to give people exactly what they want than Max would have missed the obvious dynamic that when airlines are competing mainly on price in a thin-margin capital-intensive industry they absolutely can capture market share (from paying customers, not just points collectors) by accepting the risk of degraded service.

[Ekaros]

Lower speeds to save on fuel as closing on sound barrier has somewhat sharp increase in air resistance.

Also I think in general increasing utilization of aeroplanes increases revenues and thus makes things more profitable as money is not made while not flying. Easiest way to achieve this is to remove slack like shortening turnover times. Which then results in cascading delays as planes simply are not available at times.

[dghlsakjg]

ATC shortage delays are very common and the big ones get reported on nationally.

What happens is typically that they hold you on the ground or at the gate until they can appropriately release your flight plan.

[conductr]

> but every single flight I’ve taken this year has been delayed

My experience of past 2-3 years, even if it's only 30 minutes or so and prior to boarding, there's always a delay now

[beezlebroxxxxxx]

Every flight I have taken in the last 5 years in Canada has been delayed. They simply cannot run any of the routes on time.

[conductr]

Seems to be a post-pandemic “new normal” situation

[SoftTalker]

Why does Alaska schedule more flights than they have gate slots? Or is it just that anything that delays gate availability is going to impact them first?

[Izikiel43]

> Business class prices on tickets have skyrocketed, way outstripping purported CPI.

Because business class is a luxury?

[okdood64]

Why cherrypick Newark?

[scottjg]

i frequently fly in and out of newark

[thehappypm]

Why cherrypick May?

[turrican]

May also happens to be the month construction began on one of EWR’s two commonly used runways (though they do have a smaller third runway). This severely reduced the amount of traffic the airport could handle and EWR attempted to keep operating the same amount of scheduled flights as usual, it was a real mess.

[scottjg]

runway construction is only part of the story, i think. in May, there was a number of complete ATC meltdowns causing ground stops. if you look at the stats, the majority of delays at newark in May are attributed to ATC.

personally, i was on a flight in May from SFO to EWR and my flight flew 2h30m towards Newark, then back to SFO when EWR stopped accepting landings: https://www.msn.com/en-us/travel/news/united-flight-that-was...

granted this was an especially egregious situation and not the norm, but it feels like these types of issues are on the rise based on my anecdotal experience. there were a number of full ground stops at newark due to ATC in the weeks after this. it was national news.

[scottjg]

may is the latest data currently available.