[starkparker]

> It's not new affordable housing, but the people moving in to the new expensive houses are leaving their old houses, and the people who buy those are leaving their old houses, so eventually the price drops happen on the older, smaller homes at the bottom end of the market.

I keep seeing this, but if the housing being vacated is in a different, less-desirable market, it's a bit tree-falling-in-the-woods for locals.

If a $450,000 house in a Chicago suburb is freed up by its owners moving to a $700,000 condo in Seattle, the people who can't afford a house in Seattle don't see the benefit of the condo building and aren't going to buy the house in Chicago, and the people who can't afford a house in Chicago don't recognize the Seattle development as the cause of the house hitting the market.

[mediaman]

This analogy seems confused.

If someone in Chicago moves to Seattle, then our policy options are (1) no new condo in Seattle or (2) new condo in Seattle.

Under policy 1, the new buyer from Chicago must outbid locals for the fixed housing supply; they will wind up buying older housing stock, which otherwise would have gone to existing local residents. Prices go up.

With policy 2, the new entrant buys the new condo and does not compete for pre-existing housing stock.

In this scenario, whatever house is freed up in Chicago is irrelevant to the housing stock in Seattle. I'm not sure why you included it.

The entire question can be contained by the assumption that "there is someone new coming to Seattle" and whether it would be better to have a new condo unit to sell to them or have them compete for existing fixed stock. The whole bit about the Chicago housing market is a distractor, because it stays the same under either policy.

[seanmcdirmid]

> The entire question can be contained by the assumption that "there is someone new coming to Seattle" and whether it would be better to have a new condo unit to sell to them or have them compete for existing fixed stock. The whole bit about the Chicago housing market is a distractor, because it stays the same under either policy.

Are you denying that induced demand is a thing for housing? That everyone who wants to move to Seattle will move there regardless of housing prices, and no one will leave because they get squeezed out of the housing market by new arrivals? Or is there a more nuanced argument that I'm missing?

That new condo allows one more family to live in Seattle regardless, whereas if they were competing with existing stock, some family would probably have to leave. We could play a few rounds of musical chairs to prove that fact.

[mediaman]

Yes, people are going to get squeezed out of the housing market by new arrivals if new housing stock isn't built.

"Squeezing out" is done by a price mechanism: a family that would prefer to stay in Seattle decides to sell, because that new buyer (unable to buy the condo, because it hasn't been built) decides to offer a high enough price to induce the existing family to leave.

That's only done by reducing housing affordability (increasing prices) which is the public policy outcome we're trying to avoid.

It sounds like you agree that new supply is good, I think, because you believe new entrants would otherwise "squeeze out" existing residents and I assume you would agree that this is done by price, and so therefore you would also agree that new housing stock (which decreases the "squeezing") also suppresses price level relative to the alternative fixed stock scenario.

[seanmcdirmid]

I never argued that new supply is bad. My only observation is that new supply does not always lead to price decreases since demand isn't fixed (e.g. Seattle isn't a closed system). I think another comment that mentioned equilibrium is probably a better way of putting it. It can take a lot of supply before the price point changes as new supply is added because a lot of people are waiting on the sideline to pay X that is already being paid for existing supply (but they are unable to pay X+1 to force someone out and take their place).

[mediaman]

New supply obviously increases demand because shifting the supply curve to the right (more quantity) reduces the clearing price, which increases demand. That's econ 101. In this classic case, increasing supply both decreases price and increases demand.

But what you're arguing is different: that increasing supply has no effect at all on the clearing price. That would require an unusual demand "curve" that is perfectly flat, i.e., perfectly elastic, where there is infinite demand at a given price and zero demand at just a dollar above that price (or else that infinite demand would have already pushed prices up higher than the pre-existing price).

This clearly doesn't make any sense for the housing market; home buyers are sensitive to price, there is not infinite demand, some people have more or less desire to pay for a house. In fact, perfectly elastic markets essentially don't exist, and very low slope demand curves only exist in some unusual edge cases in markets (such as commodities that are near-perfect substitutes).

[seanmcdirmid]

> that increasing supply has no effect at all on the clearing price.

I never argued that it has no effect, only. that it could have no effect. Obviously if you can build enough supply and get way ahead of demand, you will see prices fall. But that just isn't done in practice, so most of the time new supply is brought online, housing prices do not decrease. Well, that's just builders trying not to kill themselves in a market economy, so that shouldn't be surprising.

[roenxi]

The argument is clear, but where you are coming from or going to with this isn't. You're describing a situation where Seattle desperately needs large amount of construction of new housing. If we're hypothesising this mob of people who will move to Seattle as soon as they see a house for $700,000, house prices in Seattle are going to have a floor of around $700,000. Someone is going to need to build houses for those people if anyone wants to pay less than that.

Thanks to the magic of Simpson's Paradox it is possible to have the average house price go up even if houses get more affordable for literally everyone, which seems to be the situation you're going to. Which is true and interesting, but not really politically important. Obscure mathematical effects do draw attention to the fact that one metric isn't enough to develop policy, but shouldn't eclipse the fact that more houses is what people want, need and should be getting. There is this crowd of people who want to move to Seattle and live in nice houses, let them do that and pay people in Seattle to build them. Otherwise everyone will have to compete for existing housing stock.

[seanmcdirmid]

Builders aren't making much money due to material and labor costs in addition to land costs. It is probably impossible do a non-ADU project for just $700k, so dumping money into the problem isn't going to help make things cheaper. This is before we get to regulation and zoning, which are not even close to being the bottlenecks right now. I wonder if we could invest more in making building cheaper (via prefab?), and then more building would happen and prices would actually fall.

We (Seattle) are also completely built, new projects must overwrite existing housing stock and additional capacity only comes from increased density.

[colonCapitalDee]

I've never understood the induced demand argument. Yes, when goods get cheaper demand increases. Or, to put it another way, when we make our cities more affordable more people want to live there. What's the problem? Sure, induced demand means that the marginal increase of affordability is less than it may have been if demand remained constant, but a. affordability still increases, and b. the solution is just to keep adding more housing until things flatten off. I truly don't understand why this is controversial; do you not want people to have desirable things? The rational response to induced demand is "great, people actually want this. Build more".

[datadrivenangel]

It's push and pull.

If your goal is to decrease costs, the amount of supply needed may be surprising of latent / induced demand is very large. If NYC cost 1/4th the price to live there it would probably triple in population, so you'd need 40 million new units to get the costs down that much, and the price of the penthouse looking at central park would probably increase even if mean and median costs go down a lot. If a city is at the equilibrium point where supply meets demand, more housing may only keep prices flat for a large amount of new housing.

[rwarfield]

But the ultimate goal is never to decrease costs; it's to provide people housing.

[seanmcdirmid]

The problem isn't one of "we shouldn't build new housing", but rather the one of "are we going to see prices really fall after 10,000 new units of housing are built?"

It is only controversial if you really expect prices to fall when new housing is built (or to say, if you think the only solution is to build new housing and nothing else). Otherwise, the "building new housing" part isn't controversial at all.

[xnx]

Induced demand is a very popular fake idea and conversation ender. Giving people more of what they want is a good thing.

[starkparker]

I'm talking about perception, not policy. OP's paper is about perception among "rationally ignorant voters", specifically:

> This paper suggests another, complementary explanation for the over-regulation of metropolitan land use: the failure of ordinary voters to appreciate that large, exogenous increases in regional housing stocks would put downward pressure on prices, coupled with voters’ tendency to blame housing providers (developers and landlords) for high prices.

and

> Studies of interregional migration in response to negative employment shocks have tended to find that mobility is lower than economists had expected (Autor, Dorn, and Hanson 2013; Greenland, Lopresti, and McHenry 2019; Yagan 2019; Choi et al. 2024). Similarly, US metro areas with greater regulatory barriers to new supply experienced less housing-stock growth and less in-migration, but no more out-migration, than less constrained metros from 1990 to 2000 (Molloy, Nathanson, and Paciorek 2022). Such frictions mean that regional housing supply shocks will have larger effects on regional than on national prices.

> But again, laypeople have no reason to know of these research studies. Nor do ordinary people have first-hand experience with large, sudden shocks to their metro-region’s housing supply. Regional housing stocks have changed slowly, especially in recent years. Between 2008 and 2023, the total housing stock in the United States increased at an annualized rate of only 0.7 percent, with much of the growth concentrated in only a few active markets (US Census Bureau and US Department of Housing and Urban Development 2023a). Meanwhile, national median home prices have risen consistently except during recessions (US Census Bureau and US Department of Housing and Urban Development 2023b). It would be no great leap for the layperson to infer that only macroeconomic factors and financial markets, and not local supply-side factors, such as land-use restrictions, determine housing prices.

Part of that perception is in locals' belief that new high-end local housing stock can help affordability _only_ if it frees up affordable units in the local market. If the perception is that new high-end units aren't freeing up lower-end units _in the same market_, then locals are going to complain to electeds and oppose new developments, regardless of whether it's rational to do so.

It's Sisyphean to prove to a local that an outsider buying up an attractive unit priced out of the local's reach is actually a good thing for the local; there's no visible benefit and they receive no tangible relief from it. They couldn't afford a home before the new stock is built, and they can't afford a home after the new stock is fully occupied. Either the benefits are on a long timescale, or there are larger problems than housing stock influencing affordability.

The "people moving in to the new expensive houses are leaving their old houses" argument then becomes a non-starter because of the "rationally ignorant" but anecdotally pervasive argument among locals that these new developments aren't helping them.

- Locals see an influx of people from other cities/states/countries moving into attractive units that were built with prices that locals already can't afford. It doesn't matter whether that influx is 10% of the new stock or 100% of the new stock; these new outsiders stand out in _perception_ regardless of reality.

- Locals likewise don't see a short-term increase in attractive housing stock that they can afford, else they'd have already tried to acquire it.

- Developers point to affordable, vacant housing stock, but when that stock isn't in equally attractive places to live as the unaffordable stock, locals don't consider it to be beneficial to them. The fact that the unattractive place would likely become more attractive over time is a hard sell in places where that pitch has failed to materialize in the recent past due to things unrelated to housing stock (COVID, local recessions, outmigration events).

- Locals seeking affordable housing in attractive areas start advocating for enforced rent modifications or pricing mandates that developers oppose.

- Locals are voters who can influence electeds that control policy, and non-locals who haven't yet moved here aren't, so the battle enters the political sphere with a tilt toward locals. Either the government caters to voters and enacts anti-development policies, causing developers to slow down in or exit the local market, or developers lobby the government, causing voters to rebel against electeds and protest harder against developers.

The cycle grinds local regulation to a standstill. Locals get no net benefit in the local housing market, perpetuating the underlying problems. Everyone's perception of everyone else in the situation degrades further, making further changes harder to enact.

[ASinclair]

> If a $450,000 house in a Chicago suburb is freed up by its owners moving to a $700,000 condo in Seattle, the people who can't afford a house in Seattle don't see the benefit of the condo building and aren't going to buy the house in Chicago

Is the existence of the $700,000 condo the limiting factor for those people moving? If it isn't built would they instead bid up an existing unit in Seattle and put it more out of reach of existing Seattle residents?

[whall6]

There doesn’t need to be a connection between the purchase and sale events. Any marginal unit of inventory added to a market will place downward pressure on the price of that inventory (i.e., make it more affordable). The reverse is true for a marginal bid for inventory.

The effect is so minimal when you zoom into a single sale of one home and purchase of one condo, but in aggregate this causes real noticeable price movement.