[legitster]

One thing few people take into account is that demand housing is much, much more elastic than people realize - per capita people are consuming far more square footage than they used to. Houses that were built to be house multiple generations under one roof now only hold one generation. Usually elderly empty nesters. In our area we also see people buying up lots of older duplexes or triplexes and converting them into single-family homes.

So even areas where population is stable, and housing supply increases, it can result in very few tangible gains at the margin.

[starkparker]

There was a brief time 15 or so years ago where the $200-500k homes in the six or so blocks I live in were being snapped up by young upper-middle-class families on long 3-4% mortgages.

Those families' kids have now grown up, and the houses have appreciated, sometimes as much as 2-3x, due to a nearby light rail development connecting the neighborhood to the city at large on cheap transit. So those families are cashing out their housing by selling primarily to out-of-market elderly wealthy downsizers, typically from California, Arizona, Nevada, Colorado, and Texas.

The result is a neighborhood of 3- and 4-bedroom homes that once housed families of 4 or more people now mostly inhabitated by 2 or fewer people (many left vacant more than half the year as these wealthy retirees frequently travel). They also refit these former starter or second homes to accommodate these elderly inhabitants' reduced mobility and/or increase the home's luxury.

When these residents die in 10 or so years, even if the market corrects prices downward, these homes will now be even less suitable for anything but wealthy elderly inhabitants. The intelligent thing for the city to do would be to tear them down and replace them with accessible and affordable density; the reality is that the wealthy elderly who haven't died yet will spend the rest of their lives blocking such efforts out of spite.

[brandonmenc]

> out of spite

Or, they're just protecting their property value and neighborhood composition, like anyone else would do.

[barchar]

You'd think they would be prime candidates to be LPs for new development

[robocat]

> Or, they're just protecting their property value

Nearby property development often increases property values. People are not fighting developers because of money.

[danaris]

> per capita people are consuming far more square footage than they used to

^ This...

> demand housing is much, much more elastic than people realize

^ ...does not imply this.

If the only housing that is available is 3000sq.ft. for a family of 3, that family doesn't have the option to split it up and only buy 1500sq.ft. of it. They need to be able to afford the whole thing.

(Also, I question the extent to which this premise is true, at least in cities. Everything else I've been seeing is that people are living in much less space than they used to, due to the rising prices. Taking a studio apartment rather than a 1-bedroom, living with roommates, etc. But even if the premise is true, it doesn't imply your conclusion.)

[whall6]

Curious for a source on the sq footage per capita if you wouldn’t mind sharing. That’s very interesting.

Could that also be explained perhaps by the fact that people are willing to live farther away from cities (where land / homes are cheaper and larger) because they only have to work 3 days a week from the office? Or because commuting is less painful with newer cars?

[myhf]

Square footage per capita can be misleading because it goes up as an area moves from low density to medium density, but goes down as the same area moves to high density.

[legitster]

Square footage of land != square footage of real estate. A stack of apartments is high density, but each resident could enjoy more square footage than if they were crammed into a single family home with a ton of roommates.

[legitster]

https://css.umich.edu/publications/factsheets/built-environm...

https://newsletter.humanprogress.org/p/housing-abundance-has...

[bluGill]

Adam smith observed in his book that as people get more money they typically spend is on nicer housing.

[wyre]

I dont have sources, but the trend for larger houses was happening much earlier than the WfH trend.

It's a mix of car culture, proprty value being lower farther away from cities so develops can create a high margin on building neighborhoods marketed on big, new houses.

[potato3732842]

I feel like McMansions peaked in the sub-prime era and that construction since has been smaller and simpler structures.

[clausecker]

In the US, isn't this partially the cause of zoning laws banning anything that is not single-family homes from being built?

[pantalaimon]

This is not limited to the US in the slightest