[sovietswag]

That quote about conjecture reminds me of a big point from Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance. The author suggests that 'science' / 'the scientific method' don't actually account for the process by which ideas/hypotheses come into existence, science only comes into play once the hypothesis appears (from whence does it appear?). He calls that magic smoke 'Quality'. (Using the language you cited, I guess we would be asking about where the conjecture itself comes from). I'm realizing now that this is tangential to your point, sorry, but thanks for posting this interesting comment.

[crabmusket]

It's an interesting tangent! I agree with that idea, what we are taught as the "scientific method" does kind of assume you've already had the idea. The method helps you test or criticise it. I don't remember if Deutsch has an opinion on where conjecture comes from, but I think it's bound up with creativity... "quality" sounds like an interesting way of putting it.