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by toomuchtodo 301 days ago
I don’t think we’re ever going to build houses again at the rate we did before the 2008 GFC. A substantial portion of people who work in construction are undocumented (and will be targeted for deportation by this admin for the remains of their term), zoning remains a challenge, cost of materials continues to inflate. How many years would it take to get back up to speed? 5? 10? What does the economy look like then? Will enough young folks go into the necessary trades to meet the demand for this labor? We might keep building along at the anemic pace of today, but I argue we’ll never build again at the rate we did pre GFC.

https://eyeonhousing.org/2020/01/a-decade-of-home-building-t...

https://www.thebignewsletter.com/p/its-the-land-stupid-how-t...
2 comments
willis936 301 days ago
We don't build slow because the cost of labor or raw materials have gone up. In fact productivity and efficiency has gone up across the board in the past century. We build slower because there is a will to build slower. We let local people kill high speed rail, high voltage DC, and, above all, housing. You know how we built rails in the 1800s and highways in the 1900s? We didn't give a shit when someone said "no". That's what's changed.
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klooney 301 days ago
Supply and demand for labor will work itself out- prices will go up, companies will invest in efficiency, etc. People just need time to figure out the details, and the legal right to do the job.
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klipklop 301 days ago
Can people wait multiple decades for this to sort out? People without housing they can afford need it immediately.

There are going to be losers in this. No avoiding it.

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toomuchtodo 301 days ago
Indeed, that's my thesis, I appreciate you making it crystal clear. The pipeline has failed, and if there is a will to fix it, it will take time. Until it's sorted, year after year, there will be folks who go without affordable housing. There are, as you said, going to be losers from this policy failure.
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hshdhdhj4444 301 days ago
How does supply/demand work itself out when an exogenous force is rapidly contracting the supply?

Humans take time to be produced.

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