[jakelazaroff]

Even if we grant that for the sake of argument, there are two leaps of faith here:

- That AI as it currently exists is on the right track to creating that replica. Maybe neural networks will plateau before we get close. Maybe the Von Neumann architecture is the limiting factor, and we can only create the replica with a radically different model of computing!

- That we will have enough time. Maybe we'll accomplish it by the end of the decade. Maybe climate change or nuclear war will turn the world into a Mad Max–esque wasteland before we get the chance. Maybe it'll happen in a million years, when humans have evolved into other species. We just don't know!

[quantummagic]

I don't think you've refuted the point though. There's no reason to think that the apparatus we employ to animate ourselves will remain inscrutable forever. Unless you believe in a religious soul, all that stands in the way of the scientific method yielding results, is time.

> Maybe climate change or nuclear war will turn the world into a Mad Max–esque wasteland before we get the chance

In that eventuality, it really doesn't matter. The point remains, given enough time, we'll be successful. If we aren't successful, that means everything else has gone to shit anyway. Failure wont be because it is fundamentally impossible, it will be because we ran out of time to continue the effort.

[jakelazaroff]

No one has given a point to refute? The OP offered up the unsubstantiated belief that AI will some day be better than doctors/therapists/etc. You've added that it's not impossible — which, sure, whatever, but that's not really relevant to what we're discussing, which is whether it will happen to our society.

[quantummagic]

OP didn't specify a timeline or that it would happen for us personally to behold. Just that it is inevitable. You've correctly pointed out that there are things that can slow or even halt progress, but I don't think that undermines (what I at least see as) the main point. That there's no reason to believe anything fundamental stands in our way of achieving full "artificial intelligence"; ie. the doubters are being too pessimistic. Citing the destruction of humanity as a reason why we might fail can be said about literally every single other human pursuit as well; which to my mind, renders it a rather unhelpful objection to the idea that we will indeed succeed.

[jakelazaroff]

The article is about Illinois banning AI therapists in our society today, so I think the far more reasonable interpretation is that OP is also talking about our society today — or at least, in the near-ish future. (They also go on to talk about how it would affect different people in our society, which I think also points to my interpretation.)

And to be clear, I'm not even objecting to OP's claim! All I'm asking for is an affirmative reason to believe what they see as a foregone conclusion.

[quantummagic]

Well, I've already overstepped polite boundaries in answering for the OP. Maybe you're right, and he thinks such advancements are right around the corner. On my most hopeful days, I do. Let's just hope that the short term reason for failure isn't a Mad Max hellscape.