[vishvananda]

I share the concern based on the current productivity expectations but I did stumble across something recently which makes me feel a lot better. There was a change in the tax code that coincides with the beginning of the post-pandemic layoffs[1]. This was changed back last month by the BBB which likely means a bunch of new R&D spend for big tech. I think this is why we are seeing intense M&A activity and if we can keep the AI hype under control it will probably lead to new hiring as well.

[1]: https://qz.com/tech-layoffs-tax-code-trump-section-174-micro...

[ponector]

I don't think this tax change had huge impact. Two reasons:

1. Layoffs and slowdown are global, not only in US.

2. Expenses are still deductable, but over longer period. It makes no difference for big corporations.

[disgruntledphd2]

> 1. Layoffs and slowdown are global, not only in US.

Dunno about that. I've moved twice since 2022 (in Ireland), and the market is definitely less crazy but there's still (apparently) lots of work about. To be fair, I interview well and am pushing 15 years experience with a bunch of "prestigious" companies.

Definitely seemed like it much worse in the US. Then again, it was never as insane as the 2010's seemed for the US so maybe there was less over-hiring.

> 2. Expenses are still deductable, but over longer period. It makes no difference for big corporations.

The rate of change between full and 20% deduction definitely had a big impact on smaller companies hiring of software/data people. If you were a megacorp it mattered less but still not trivial.