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by supriyo-biswas 309 days ago
> Back then people were happy if they got models to write a small simple function and it worked. Now they expect models to manipulate large production codebases and get it right first time.

This push is mostly coming from the C-level and the hustler types, both of which need this to work out in order for their employeeless corporation fantasy to work out.

2 comments

> This push is mostly coming from the C-level and the hustler types, both of which need this to work out in order for their employeeless corporation fantasy to work out.

The irony, at least in my mind, is that C-level hustler types are exactly the perfect role to be replaced by "AI" for big cost-savings. For obvious reasons, it won't happen.

Frankly, I'm not sure if LLM would be the best replacement. Given they need to make decisions, I'd say ensemble methods could work better, at least in scenarios where you can actually perform reliable simulations (e.g. production, but not necessarily marketing). LLMs tend to averages whereas what shareholders want is to optimize for X, where X is usually, but not necessarily, net profit.

(It would be a fun experiment to create such an optimization startup and advertise it to boards as "AI-CEO-as-a-service" and watch the faces of these CEOs pushing for AI in workplace. Maybe they would start having a more nuanced view.)

There's an entire category of things designed for game theory and other types of zero sum games like chess, go, poker, etc so I don't see why you can't have an "ai" system that's making profit-orientated, automated decisions.
I'm not going to say that nobody is expecting it to do these things, but I don't think they should. It's still unable to write a simple function.

What we've seen isn't a reasonable increase in expectations based upon validation of previous experiments. Instead it's racking up of expectations by all the signals of success. When they time and time again take in more VC cash at ever greater valuations, we are forced to assume they want to do something more, and since they get the cash we have to assume somebody believes them.

Its a pyramid scheme, but instead of paying out earlier investors with the later investors cash its a confidence pyramid scheme. They obsolete the previous investors valuations by making bigger claims with larger expectations. Then they use those larger expectations as proof they already fulfilled the previous expectations.