| > The global pandemic will tank the stock market - the market did crash and then Fed stepped in. Rates were cut and Fed > War in Ukraine will tank the stock market - Market did go down by -30% between Jan-Oct 2022 and went nowhere for sometime after that. > High interest rates will tank the stock market - Impact for this remains to be seen. Even during 2008 the high interest rates risk persisted for couple of years before the crash. So, I'd give it more time. > Tariffs will tank the stock market - Did we not see a 20% drop before tariffs were put on hold for 90 days? > IA will tank the stock market - I don't have much conviction on this one. It is true that no one knows when a prolonged market crash like 2008 will happen. Maybe never. Government has figured out that Fed intervention can help the market stay afloat. So, maybe unless Fed doesn't step in for a long time these predictions will come true. The flip side of this is that investment returns of a diversified portfolio (net of inflation) is slowly going down. The choices are to either concentrate or find alternative investing vehicles. That is one of reasons private equity is out looking for alternate income sources like buying up houses and hiking up the rents etc. |
I’m too young to remember the naysayers, just the hype.