[impossiblefork]

The way I see it, prices are too high. War is one thing, but it's abroad and the restrictions have been minimal. But interest rates went from <1% to 4.5% without valuations going down or profits going up. This means that investors are pricing companies as if though interests rates can be lowered. I don't think they can, because inflation in the US already quite high despite the 4.5% interest rates and with these tariffs upon that, it probably can't be lowered. For this reason I think companies should be priced using the 4.5% interest rate as a best guess, maybe 4% works, maybe 3.5%, but they're current priced as if though the interest rate is is <1%.

Tesla has a P/E ratio something like 26 times what other well-run automotive companies have. Boeing has a price like Airbus, despite no profits, etc.

Commercial real estate prices have gone down, and that's reasonable, but you've had both the interest rate increases and this WFH+hybrid remote thing becoming common, and since the interest rates have gone up from such a low level I think this is still overvalued, because 1% -> 2% should in theory mean halving the value if the rent is constant, and it went <1% to 4.5%.

I think it's a miracle that there hasn't been a crash. I wonder what weird things have been going on that have ensured that there hasn't been one yet. So I think your perspective is strange. The situation is absolutely crazy, and has been for years, but that doesn't make it not crazy.

[Tuna-Fish]

> This means that investors are pricing companies as if though interests rates can be lowered. I don't think they can, because inflation in the US already quite high despite the 4.5% interest rates and with these tariffs upon that, it probably can't be lowered.

This is why Trump is replacing people doing the statistics with people who very publicly say that they will print what Trump wants. He really wants to cut rates, and I think he will eventually get his way.

[impossiblefork]

If employment is down though, then that would be justification for lowering the interest rates. I think it's more a matter of maintaining appearances than something strategic to make the, by Trump desired, low interest rate economy possible.

Even though he wants lower rates, rather than saying 'the Fed is prioritizing price stability over employment and that's wrong-- we can't waste American lives, they need to have jobs' he's denying the numbers despite that they could in principle allow him to do something he wants.

Maybe other things are signs of knowing these problems, maybe this demand for investments from Japan and the EU are motivated by concerns that stock market and to some degree commercial housing valuations are unreasonable, but it's not certain that Trump or anybody else is fully aware. This isn't complicated stuff, and I've even seen newspapers detail ideas like this, maybe toned down a bit, but it's hard to know who understands what.