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by pcwelder 313 days ago
>I found, a required sample size for just one thousand people would be 278

It's interesting to note that for a billion people this number changes to a whopping ... 385. Doesn't change much.

I was curious, with 22 sample size (assuming unbiased sample, yada yada), while estimating the proportion of people satisfying a criteria, the margin of error is 22%.

While bad, if done properly, it may still be insightful.

2 comments

Sample size requirements are primarily determined by desired confidence level and margin of error rather than population size, which explains why the required sample barely changes between 1,000 and 1 billion people.
> This helps explain the – perhaps unintuitive at first – observation that many of the developers we interviewed were paying for top-tier subscriptions.

It doesn't sound like an unbiased sample.