Hacker News new | ask | show | jobs
by freedomben 308 days ago
> but it all feels like we're sane washing this administration

This is not a defense of the admin or their actions, but if there's something we should have learned well over the past 100+ years of history, it's not to assume insanity on the part of people who disagree with you. It feels good to assume that we are so correct that anyone disagreeing with us must be insane, but it's a deeply unproductive (and often counter-productive) way to interact with people.

Personally, I think they think that places like the BLS are stacked with "deep state" people that are trying to sabotage the current administration. I think that's mostly absurd, but they don't, and without evidence either way it's a matter of opinion (I personally lean heavily on things like Hanlon's Razor and trying to gauge "likeliness" rather than assuming the best or worst). If you believe as they do, then cleaning house is not only good but necessary, so the actions aren't insane. If we don't try to (in good faith) understand their beliefs/motivations, and just assume they are just randomly pulling triggers, not only will we only further entrench partisan divides (nothing alienates somebody more than feeling they aren't being properly understood), but we hinder our own ability to predict and prepare for the future.

7 comments

The prior comment is not using the definition of sane/insane as in: "the leadership of the White House is composed of people that are insane." Rather: "the decisions and policies set forth by the White House are insane." That's an important distinction.

To "sane-wash" is to take an extraordinary break from liberal order/american historical norms and treat such break as normal politics.

I completely agree that there are rational actors at the White House who have an incorrect sense of a Deep State at the BLS, and are taking what they would describe as a rational step and firing it's leader. But simply because they are rational does not mean that their subsequent decisions are rational.

If am a rational person and I have an incorrect belief that my house has cockroaches, then I burn down my house to get of the cockroaches, then the news media reports I "took bold new steps to rid my house of cockroaches," I have been sane washed.

For something like this, all the data are there. They show their work. The administration could try to check and see if the numbers are correct, but they don't.
There's no need. The BLS themselves check their own numbers and huge revisions have become normal. The idea that the BLS is getting things wrong isn't controversial and has been flagged by economists for years. If you want to understand this POV read this:

https://substack.com/home/post/p-169836476

Others and I mercilessly criticized the BLS during the Biden Administration for the huge downward revisions that occurred every month under the prior administration. Reporting good numbers one month, only to revise them down significantly over the next two months, when no one was paying attention. Frankly, at the time, it looked political. Now it appears to be just gross incompetence.

Understand, the revisions to the employment data last Friday were the largest revisions in my lifetime. More than 90% of the initially reported jobs didn’t exist. Combined with the revisions over the past three years, it is clear that something at BLS is broken. I have spent a career building statistical forecast and prediction models. If my models produced 90% errors, I would have adjusted them, or I would have been fired. Ms. McEntarfer didn’t make adjustments….so she was fired.

I think you're giving them too much credit. I don't think they care if the numbers are legit. They care about the optics. They're happy to lie about what they believe if it fits the optics they want to project.
I think they think that government is inherently bad (with the exception of the military and certain law enforcement) and reducing it is automatically good. I think this because I heard Rush Limbaugh saying it for three hours a day every day for years. It’s not hard to figure out their motivations. Just listen to them. Understanding those motivations can be tough, due to a combination of very different values and a reliance on various facts that happen to be untrue, but you can at least figure out the first level pretty easily.
I'm not saying MAGA supporters are insane or that Trump himself is insane. I'm merely pointing out that the response to the extraordinary levels of corruption in this administration is insane along with the actions themselves considering what scandals plagued previous administrations.

You can try to steelman their view all you want, what we're seeing is bold-faced corruption: Trump coin crypto investor dinners, Trump mobile, receiving a $400M jet from Qatar, Tech executives donating to him in various ways to curry favor, and revoking security clearances from law firms who represent things he doesn't like. Just to name a few.

Thanks, with that clarification, we are actually in perfect agreement
> and without evidence either way it's a matter of opinion

The absence of evidence is used as evidence of the thing (hostile deep state actors) existing, because they're so good they can hide their tracks so well that they can't be found. They must be stopped.

When lack of evidence is the proof... I'm not sure there's much room for rational discussion.

"...and just assume they are just randomly pulling triggers...hinder our own ability to predict and prepare for the future."

Speaking about the current politics and US administration, much of what's coming doesn't need to be 'predicted' - it's unfolding from the project2025 document. Not everything happening is from there, but quite a lot is.

Luckily, we don't need to "try in good faith" to understand their motivations. They published a manifesto about it (Project 2025) and are systematically going down that list of sweeping changes. These changes don't happen in a bubble.