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by coldpie 310 days ago
I don't think anyone serious is talking about AGI from LLMs, no.
2 comments

Only if you consider Sam Altman not serious: https://www.tomsguide.com/ai/chatgpt/sam-altman-claims-agi-i...

I find this pattern in tech hype really frustrating. Someone in a leadership role in a major tech company/VC promises something outrageous. Time passes and the promise never materializes. People then retcon the idea that "everybody knew that wasn't going to happen". Well either "everybody" doesn't include Elon Musk[1], Sam Altman, or Marc Andreessen[2] or these people are liars. No one seems to be held to their track record of being right or wrong, instead people just latch on to the next outrageous promise as if the previous one was fulfilled.

[1] https://electrek.co/2025/03/18/elon-musk-biggest-lie-tesla-v...

[2] https://dailyhodl.com/2022/06/01/billionaire-and-tech-pionee...

There's also this deluded-CEO/grounded-CEO routine between Altman and Nadela. Altman will be quoted saying something outrageous in social/mainstream-media which Nadela can then later tone down, add nuance and be realistic about in some firechat or podcast to address the minority who understands, will listen, and would criticize.

It does look like "A lie will make it halfway around the world while the truth is busy lacing its boots" is a major part of a communication strategy.

> Only if you consider Sam Altman not serious

> Elon Musk[1], Sam Altman, or Marc Andreessen[2] ... these people are liars.

Bingo. These people are salesmen & marketers. Lying to sell a product (including gathering funding & pumping company stock) is literally the job description. If they weren't good at it, they wouldn't hold the positions they do.

Being a good salesperson does not require lying. It's not the job that's doing the lying, but the person lying to you.
And yet altman talks about AGI being imminent, but his company has only ever produced LLMs.
Now why would the CEO of an AI company say something like that!?
I do know that AGI has a different meaning internally to what we think it means:

https://www.fanaticalfuturist.com/2025/01/microsoft-and-open...

Massive grain of salt though.

Is it a given that they need to unrealistically hype everything? To me it just seems like he's killing any and all credibility he had

Probably a bad long term strategy?

I mean other non-AI companies use hype too sure.. but it's maybe a little sprinkle of 1.1x on top aimed to highlight their best features. Here we're going full on 100x of reality

> To me it just seems like he's killing any and all credibility he had. Probably a bad long term strategy?

He's already got more money than God and there's an infinite supply of suckers who think wealth and skill/intelligence are correlated for him to keep feeding off of (see also Goop and Tesla, incredibly successful companies also run by wealthy hucksters). Sam Altman will be just fine.

It's not a given but Altman is a public figure for a reason while I don't know the names of any of the other CEOs off the top of my head. He talks a lot and when he talks, it's about AI. Even talking about the dangers of AI is hype because it implies it's an important topic to discuss now because it's imminent.