[ben_w]

> You’re in a bubble.

Sure, all I have to go on from the other side of the Atlantic is the internet. So in that regard, kinda like the AI.

One of the big surprises from the POV of me in Jan 2024, is that I would have anticipated Trump being in prison and not even available as an option for the Republican party to select as a candidate for office, and that even if he had not gone to jail that the Republicans would not want someone who behaved as he did on Jan 6 2021.

[OldfieldFund]

you can run for presidency from prison :)

[exasperaited]

And he would have. And might have won. Because his I'm-the-most-innocent-persecuted-person messaging was clearly landing.

I am surprised the grandparent poster didn't think Trump's win was at least entirely possible in January 2024, and I am on the same side of the Atlantic. All the indicators were in place.

There was basically no chance he'd actually be in prison by November anyway, because he was doing something else extremely successfully: delaying court cases by playing off his obligations to each of them.

Back then I thought his chances of winning were above 60%, and the betting markets were never ever really in favour of him losing.

[amalcon]

I mean, the presumptive GOP primary candidates at the time were Trump, Trump-lite (DeSantis), about 10 Trump sycophants, and Haley. He had demonstrated a high level of influence over GOP primary voters in the 2022 midterm. It had been (internally) obvious since at least then that he was going to win the primary again. I can't speak to how much of that made it across the Atlantic.

Whether he would win the general was an open question then. In the American system, your prediction should never get very far from a coin flip a year out.

[username332211]

I'm pretty sure you are completely correct on the last part. Nobody in Republican management wanted a second Trump term. If the candidate wasn't Trump, Republicans would have had a guaranteed victory. Imagine that infamous debate, but with some 50-year-old youngster facing Joe Biden.

It's the White House that wanted Trump to be candidate. They played Republican primary voters like a fiddle by launching a barrage of transparently political prosecutions just as Republican primaries were starting.

And then they still lost the general election.

[FrustratedMonky]

You think the Democratic White House, manipulated Republicans into Voting for Trump. So it is the Democrats fault we have Trump??? Next Level Cope.

[adastra22]

Yes? This was pretty clear at the time—-they thought Trump would be easier to run against than Haley.

[9rx]

> You think the Democratic White House, manipulated Republicans into Voting for Trump.

Yes, that is what he thinks. Did you not read the comment? It is, like, uh, right there...

He also explained his reasoning: If Trump didn't win the party race, a more compelling option (the so-called "50-year-old youngster") would have instead, which he claims would have guaranteed a Republican win. In other words, what he is saying that the White House was banking on Trump losing the presidency.

[FrustratedMonky]

"explained his reasoning"

Well, I guess, if you are taking some pretty wild speculation as a reasoned explanation. There isn't much hope for you.

Maybe it was because the Democrats new the Earth was about the be invaded by an Alien race , and they also knew Trump was actually a lizard person (native to Earth and thus on their joint side). And Trump would be able to defeat them, so using the secret mind control powers, the Democrats were able to sway the election to allow Trump to win and thus use his advanced Lizard technology to save the planet. Of course, this all happened behind the scenes.

I think if someone is saying the Democrats are so powerful and skillful, that they can sway the election to give Trump the primary win, but then turn around and lose. That does require some clarification.

I'm just hearing a lot of these crazy arguments that somehow everything Trump does is the fault of the Democrats. They are crazy on the face of it. Maybe if people had to clarify their positions they would realize 'oh, yeah, that doesn't make sense'.

[9rx]

> if you are taking some pretty wild speculation as a reasoned explanation.

How the heck did you manage to conflate line of reasoning with claims being made?

> There isn't much hope for you.

And fall for the ad hominem fallacy.

> crazy arguments that somehow everything Trump does is the fault of the Democrats

While inventing some weird diatribe about crazy arguments claiming Democrats being at fault for what Trump does, bearing no resemblance to anything else in the discussion.

> They are crazy on the face of it.

As well as introducing some kind of nebulous legion of unidentified "crazy" straw men.

> that doesn't make sense

Couldn't have said it better myself.

> Maybe if people had to clarify their positions

Sad part is that asking for clarification on the position of that earlier comment would have been quite reasonable. There is potentially a lot we can learn from in the missing details. If only you had taken the two extra seconds to understand the comment before replying.

[FrustratedMonky]

Ok. If you go back to original. I was bit sarcastic. So a sarcastic question, is probably not taken as a real question.

Like when hearing something out of left field, I think the reply can also be extreme, like saying 'Wuuut????, are you real?".

I do see claims that the Democrats are at fault for us having Trump. Thus anything that happens now is really a knock on effect of Democrats not beating him, so we blame Democrats instead of the people that actually voted for Trump or Trump himself.

So hearing yet another argument about how Democrats are so politically astute that they could swing the Republican primary yet completely fumble later, just seems like more conspiracy theories.