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by mallets 321 days ago
It doesn't work if you don't have 1:1 product, which Intel foundry absolutely doesn't. Not in performance, price or just ease of use. No one is going to risk years and billions to get it working on Intel, that's a sure way to lose your edge.

Companies (like Nvidia) will just raise prices and if demand drops they will divert more of it to countries like China and EU. And demand isn't going to drop much anyway for in-demand stuff like Apple chips or AI stuff. Best case scenario, they (not TSMC) temporarily eat the cost or spread it around.

This has nothing to do with Trump, it simply doesn't result in competitive local manufacturing. Increasingly rent-seeking AND subsidized, with no pressure to compete.
2 comments
notepad0x90 321 days ago
You didn't address the fact that they have state-side facilities slated to open in 2026? You also said intel "doesn't" not "can't" isn't it more reasonable that demand will force supply to adapt. Why couldn't intel compete before? and why can't it going forward? China is working on TSMC rivals (if they haven't succeeded already), the west should just sit on its hands and wait for a military conflict with china because of TSMC dependence? in the short term you're right, but change is long due.
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mallets 320 days ago
Their US facilities are purposefully NOT bleeding-edge, and also cost more.

And this version of Intel can't, maybe a different one that fully separates design and foundry could. The best solution long-term would be to directly subsidize foundries, with the right incentives to acquire different customers (how TSMC or Samsung operate). They just might get lucky if everyone hits a hard scaling wall.

Whatever happens, tariffs and bans are the absolute worst incentives for innovation and growth.

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croemer 321 days ago
Monopolists or companies with some degree of Monopoly will absorb some of the tariffs as opposed to passing on. Putting tariffs on monopolists makes some economic sense.

Tariffs on commodities though don't.

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mallets 320 days ago
Monopolies with strong demand for their products will happily pass on the costs, and then some. The delicate balance between encouraging demand while maintaining margins.

On the political side of things, they can use their influence and customer base to pressure the government. Silently eating the costs isn't good for them or the market as a whole, long-term.

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