[at-fates-hands]

I live in Minnesota, we get about 34% less sun than most of the southern states like Arizona or Florida.

Arizona - 3,800 hours of sunlight hours per year

Minnesota - 2,500 hours of sunlight hours per year

Ergo, I can't generate as much energy as someone who lives in a state that gets significantly more sunlight.

I would also add that setup and installation of even a small solar array has an ROI of around 10 years because I can't generate as much energy, therefore it takes longer for me to break even.

Right now in Minnesota:

The average cost of installing a 5 kW solar panel system in Minnesota is approximately $14,900 before applying the 30% federal tax credit, which can significantly reduce the overall expense. After incentives, the out-of-pocket cost can be around $13,860

Sorry, I'm not going to lay out 15K and then have to wait ten years before I break even. If you want to know why people aren't adopting solar, this is the reason. Its cost prohibitive for many, many people.

Does it make sense for people in those Southern states? 100%. For everybody else? Not so much.

[mstachowiak]

You can finance the purchase to avoid upfront payments. And in many cases, the energy savings exceed the finance payments, resulting in a net monthly gain from a cash flow basis with no upfront payment.

[at-fates-hands]

>> You can finance the purchase to avoid upfront payments.

Yeah and then you pay interest on the loan. Which then makes it EVEN MORE expensive AND lengthens your ROI just to break even.

FYI you're not "saving" anything until A) Your loan is paid off and B) Your array is generating enough energy to compensate for your existing energy use.

Your numbers just don't add up:

$15,000 for a 5Kw array.

$15,000 loan with a VERY generous 5% interest rate on an also very generous 6 year term.

Interest paid over six years: $4,500

Total paid after six years: $19,500

Monthly payments would be around $240.00

The average monthly cost of electricity for Minneapolis is about $190.00 which is about 1,097kWh

The monthly average your 5kWh array can generate in a month (assuming optimal conditions) is around 700kWh. Leaving you with a deficit of 397kWh you still need to pay for.

So no, I'm not seeing how the cost savings will exceed your finance payments. It will eventually pay for itself once you get outside of that ROI period. And then what? You get 15 years of free electricity which amounts to:

$190.00 * 12 = $2,280

$2,280 * 15 = $34,200

So then, over 25 years, your net gain is about: $14,000? Which is about $560/year?

Not worth it at all.

[gregbot]

Im pretty sure if that were a common situation more people would have rooftop solar and there wouldn’t need to be subsidies for it.

[igor47]

Are you assuming people are rational, informed, and interested? Strong assumptions. I recommend doing a little research vs going off the vibes

[at-fates-hands]

I've been doing research for the last 20 years.

Every single year I talk to companies and the cost has gone down, barely. I've been told every year for the last 20 years that technology is getting so much better. The panels are so much more efficient, cost less, the state and federal govt have tax breaks, blah blah, blah. The Chinese have found a way to produce them this way and that way, "Oh you just wait, its really going to be affordable in the next few years!"

No, its still not affordable. If it were, like OP said you would see them on every house in your neighborhood.

I've wanted to put solar on my house for very long time and every year its the same thing. "Finance a $15,000 loan and in ten years you'll have free electricity!!"

I would say anybody who's rational, informed and interested looking at that would 100% of the time its not worth it.

[igor47]

Solar module prices over the past 20 years went from $2/watt to $.3/watt. Installed prices are a little more, going from maybe $6/watt to ~ $3/watt. I paid about $3.5/watt installed in Berkeley 3 years ago, a place not known for affordability. In the meantime, (average in the US) electricity rates went from ~$.10/kW to about $.16/kW. If over that period, your payback period has remained constant, you must have dramatically (like 20x ) reduced your power usage. Congratulations!

[triceratops]

You're right that the economics of residential solar don't add up in the north. Utility-scale solar however is a different story.