[starmole]

This article is initially very well written and convincing. And it started to stress me out a little bit! Am I at great risk for having most of my wealth tied to the dollar?

But taking a step back: It is making very strong predictions for a future state of what I would consider a chaotic system. As the author identifies as a Physicist and not a Psychic, why is there no mention of uncertainty? No mention of how you would test or refute the prediction?

Looking at very selectively picked graphs is like reading tea leaves.

If even just a few people read the article and change their investment strategy as a result you already affected the outcome.

[eric_cc]

> Am I at great risk for having most of my wealth tied to the dollar?

You are guaranteed to fail, no question.

The dollar is a corrupted unit of value that is meant to pump assets and exert global control. Look at any dollar buying power chart to see what your future looks like - a never ending chart down.

[dnlzro]

Unless you're holding only cash, why would that matter? Your real wealth can grow as long as you are holding assets that appreciate faster than the dollar depreciates.

[saubeidl]

> Am I at great risk for having most of my wealth tied to the dollar?

Well, you lost 15% compared to Euros this year so far...

[IAmGraydon]

It's pretty obvious when I see this comment or others about the dollar losing value at a historic rate that the person commenting read it somewhere and doesn't actually understand the currency movement and has zero context. Your comment isn't even factually correct either - the USD is down 10.63% against the Euro this year, not 15%. Now to add a bit of context, it's up nearly 40% over the last 15 years against the Euro. The dollar is currently sitting at a level vs the Euro that is higher than 31 out of the last 45 years. It is at the same level it was in November 2021, which is still far above the mean.

Have a look at the dollar index since it's inception in 1967. Does it look like the dollar is plummeting to you?

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/TVC-DXY/?timeframe=ALL

[starmole]

Because this was a reply to my comment: It reads to me a lot like "you are reading the tea leaves wrong". Switch the graph, the time frame. But what would be a better way to talk about this? A more helpful and actionable one?

[IAmGraydon]

It’s not about just switching the graph. It’s about looking at the entire graph, at which point it becomes obvious that the current pullback of the dollar has happened many times and is completely normal. Don’t get me wrong - the current administration seems hellbent on destroying it, but what we’re currently seeing does not justify alarm yet.

[starmole]

Really appreciate the very serious reply. But my initial comment had a very different intent: Economic analysis like in the linked article is crazy to me. Predictions for 15 years out! With graphs to support it! That seems mad to me, and especially the confidence of it.

[IAmGraydon]

Ah I see. Thanks for the clarification and sorry for the misread.

[starmole]

Lol, yes! I should take my dad's advice and buy forest land in Germany instead of US index funds. And this is not sarcastic - it might actually be the better strategy! But the article does not help me at all making that decision.