[827a]

People read FUD articles like this then start ignoring any common sense, including even their own senses, because apparently the world must be ending and we're all going to die. There's no pain. What pain is anyone (except a couple dictators under sanctions) feeling?

Almost every major currency has lost value relative to the US Dollar over the past 10 years. Not just, like, a little bit. Like, a lot a bit. The Indian Rupee has lost 53% since 2007. Yen, down. Pound, down. Canada, down. That's reality. There is no "switching to avoid devaluation of the USD" when the USD has devalued so much less than almost any other currency on the planet.

One major country that has managed to maintain the value of their currency relative to the USD is China. Who has by some estimates a ~300%+ debt to GDP load (if you think that number is too high, its because whatever estimates you've read before didn't take into account municipal debt, because that's where China hides it). And a 72 year old leader with zero politically-feasible line of succession. And a critically shrinking population. And literally zero global military force projection. Any faith that any country puts into China is going to be destroyed just a few short years after Xi's death; the main thing China has going for it isn't their manufacturing base, AI strategy, or whatever; its that Xi hopefully won't die in the next decade.

[saubeidl]

You didn't mention Euros or Swiss Francs - the Euro being the obvious candidate for next reserve currency.

[rssoconnor]

Huh? The CAD/USD exchange rate is exactly where I remember it being 30 years ago.

[827a]

CAD/USD is down ~5.3% over the past 20 years.

[rssoconnor]

How much is it down over the past 30 years?

FWIW, my mental CAD/USD price anchor was set when I was coming of age at 0.75 CAD / USD. Today it at 0.73 CAD / USD, and I've seen it touch 0.60 ish and pass parity in my lifetime.

[827a]

IMO: 30 years isn't relevant to look at, because its ancient history (I'm calling both of us ancient here). It pushes back too far beyond 2008 & the GFC to capture data that isn't relevant to the modern global economy. Everything about everything about the world, today, is a consequence of the GFC, and its likely that by the year 2100 we'll still talk about it as among the most significant things to happen to the world in the past century. Maybe the most significant.