[ViewTrick1002]

For the net zero scenarios by the IEA one of the areas that is ahead of the curve is batteries.

The global battery manufacturing capacity reached 3 TWh in 2024.

With say an average lifetime of 15 years getting a bit over 1 TWh of new batteries per year for the car fleet seems easily feasible.

Then please give us a source for regarding your continental dunkelflate doomsday scenario so we can make sure is a plausible scenario, and not made up scary numbers.

Of course ignoring that you assume that we need to charge every single car to 100% every day.

[ben_w]

> The global battery manufacturing capacity reached 3 TWh in 2024.

OK, that's better than I thought, I was led to believe it was 1 TWh in 2024.

> With say an average lifetime of 15 years getting a bit over 1 TWh of new batteries per year for the car fleet seems easily feasible.

I think that's optimistic; none of my (non-car) batteries have maintained significant capacity for that long. I think grid use will look more like phone or laptop use than like car use, with daily full cycles?

> Then please give us a source for regarding your continental dunkelflate doomsday scenario so we can make sure is a plausible scenario, and not made up scary numbers.

I think you're misunderstanding me on this. I'm saying it's good enough even for a very weird and unusual condition far in excess of the normal talking points.

> Of course ignoring that you assume that we need to charge every single car to 100% every day.

No? I'm saying I expect an average car to get a 60kWh battery pack, and that there are 290 million vehicles in the USA, and that this makes a combined manufacturing requirement of sustaining a capacity of multiply-those-numbers-together storage. This says nothing about how often that storage will normally get charged, and instead I was saying how long this could power the USA for if discharged in a very weird condition.

Actual power consumption of those vehicles is tiny, something like 80% of mean consumption (in places where shaded parking isn't the norm) could be supplied by requiring their surfaces to be covered in PV.