[libraryofbabel]

I think this is a really insightful point. Even if we are in a bubble now, in the sense that current LLM technology (impressive though it is) does not quite live up to the huge valuations of AI companies, there is a plausible future in which we get enough technological progress in the next few years that the bubble never really pops and we are able to morph into a new AI-driven economy without a crash. There are probably good historical examples of this happening with other technologies, although it’s hard to identify them because in retrospect it looks like the optimists invested rationally, even though their bets maybe weren’t all that justified at the time.

I personally think a crash is more likely than not, but I think we should not assume that history will follow a particular pattern like the dot com bust. There are a variety of ways this can go and anyone who tells you they know how it’s all going to shake out is either guessing or trying to sell you something.

It is for sure an interesting time to be in the industry. We’ll be able to tell the next generation a lot of stories.

[zmmmmm]

It's a good analysis.

For me the big concern is really the level of detachment from reality that I'm seeing around time scales. People in the startup world seem to utterly fail to appreciate the complexity of changing business processes - for any type of change, let alone for an immature tech where there are still fundamental unsolved problems. The only way for the value of AI to be realised is for large scape business adoption to happen, and that is simply not achievable in the 2 years of runway most of these companies seem to be on.