[nwienert]

Let's look:

GPT-1 June 2018

GPT-2 February 2019

GPT-3 November 2021

GPT-4 March 2023

Claude tells me this is the rough improvement of each:

GPT-1 to 2: 5-10x

GPT-2 to 3: 10-20x

GPT 3 to 4: 2-4x

Now it's been 2.5 years since 4.

Are you expecting 5 to be 2-4x better, or 10-20x better?

[esafak]

How are you measuring this improvement factor? We have numerous benchmarks for LLMs and they are all saturating. We are rapidly approaching AGI by that measure, and headed towards ASI. They still won't be "human" but they will be able to do everything humans can, and more.