[BigHatLogan]

Really well said. I would even go further and say that the "smart people with expertise" even disagree on matters like this and are operating on imperfect, vague information. Knowing that, it seems even more ridiculous to ask passersby about their opinion on this. Of course you can have an opinion, but keep in mind you're likely operating in 99% fog. Just my two cents.

[abirch]

I love Tetlock's "Super Forecasting" Basically experts only do slightly better than random on predicting in their area of expertise.

[giardini]

What does Tetlock say about the utility of expert forecasting?

[abirch]

There are superforecasters, but they're not the pundits you see on TV. Superforecasting is a great book, see if your library has it.

From: https://ig.ft.com/sites/business-book-award/books/2015/longl...

In a landmark 20 year study, Professor Philip Tetlock showed that even the average expert was only slightly better at predicting the future than random guesswork. Tetlock’s latest project, an unprecedented government funded forecasting tournament involving over a million individual predictions has since shown that there are, however, some people with real demonstrable foresight.