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by CamperBob2 322 days ago
If I had to bet, I'd say current models have an asymptomatic growth converging to a merely "ok" performance

(Shrug) People with actual money to spend are betting twelve figures that you're wrong.

Should be fun to watch it shake out from up here in the cheap seats.
2 comments
ben_w 322 days ago
Nah, trillion dollars is about right for "ok". Percentage point of the global economy in cost, automate 2 percent and get a huge margin. We literally set more than that on actual fire each year.

For "pretty good", it would be worth 14 figures, over two years. The global GDP is 14 figures. Even if this only automated 10% of the economy, it pays for itself after a decade.

For "Ahura Mazda", it would easily be worth 16 figures, what with that being the principal God and god of the sky in Zoroastrianism, and the only reason it stops at 16 is the implausibility of people staying organised for longer to get it done.

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nottorp 321 days ago
> People with actual money to spend are betting

... but those "people with actual money to spend" have burned money on fads before. Including on "AI", several times before the current hysterics.

If you're a good actor/psychologist, it's probably a good business model to figure out how to get VC money and how to justify your startup failing so they give you money for the next startup.

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