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by jongjong 324 days ago
I worked for an ed-tech startup as employee number 4, joined when it was obscure; not even in the Alexa top 4 million rankings and almost no revenue. The founder was really good though and gave everyone shares instead of options. I got a bit under 0.2% equity in the company. The company grew (slowly and steadily) to $6.5 million USD revenue with about 10% net profit margins but its last valuation (over 10 years later) was like $8 million USD. They charge like $15 USD PER YEAR PER student for their product so very cheap; I feel like they could easily increase the prices given how widely used they are in my country (over 30% of students in my country use the app).

I had the option to sell some equity recently but it would have only been like $16K USD so I held... I had about $9K taken out of my salary to pay for those so it doesn't make sense to sell given the massive growth the app and not that much dilution... The financial gain barely covers the inflation.

It feels like both revenue and profits have been kept artificially low. $6.5 million per year revenue, still growing steadily, with a loyal customer base with 10% profit seems really good... A valuation of $8 million seems ridiculously low... Not even 2x revenue, for a tech platform with good lock-in factor (they sell a lot of licenses to schools)!

It's kind of amazing how bad a deal it is to work for someone else as an employee. Even if the founder is good and generous in many ways and the business side (which you have little control over as a developer) happens to work out pretty well, they can still pull all sorts of levers to make the deal bad. With this one, I'm going to wait it out 20 years if I must. A lot of the game is just timing, you gotta wait it out, sell at the top... Some people see a peak opportunity to cash-in multiple times in their lives, some people never see it! In my case, I haven't seen the top yet.

I never had any opportunity to make serious money ever. Never had an opportunity to pull the trigger and make even $100K. The best I ever got was in crypto, my crypto was worth $100K but I was earning like 100% annual yield and required a 1-month unlock period. So I made more than that by holding it for 3 years anyway...

I think my career story so far is quite interesting. Probably more interesting than 99% of the classic SV startup stories (at least what they say publicly). I've done some things nobody else has done. Made money in truly adverse environments where a lot of people hated my guts. I've seen people behave in strange ways. At times, I felt like I was almost breaking through the membrane of 'the matrix'; almost transcending my social class. But all I got for it was 3 years of passive income. I never had the opportunity to cash out big.

It's tough out there, so tough, it often feels fake/artificial. Often, it feels like you have to be 'chosen' and that's all that matters. Your work doesn't matter, how talented you are doesn't matter, how lucky you get doesn't matter (besides the luck of 'being chosen').

At the end of the day, money is like a river and people upstream from you get to decide whether or not the river will flow in your direction. When you understand that new money is created constantly and, just like the river, the water cycles between the mountain and the sea, you start to understand the value of positioning and 'being selected'. The people upstream will keep telling you that they don't control the flow of money; that the river flows naturally through the lowest valleys... It's your job to put yourself in that low valley... But really, they've built massive dams up there directing the water almost arbitrarily. You may be at the lowest valley but they're redirecting the water elsewhere artificially because it suits them better. Reality is that they can easily alter the path of the river anywhere they want and it has little to do with 'building something people want'. It's about building something the people upstream want... And sometimes they just want to help their existing friends; unfortunate for you if you are not their friend.

It's a catch-22; you need rich friends to get money but you need money to get rich friends. But I suspect it's way easier for a poor person to get rich by befriending a rich person than it is for a poor person to get rich without rich friends. The second approach feels like you're piercing through 'the matrix' because of all the weird almost conspiratorial resistance you might get (tech feels like one big club).

Sometimes you might accumulate some dirt on some rich people and that gives you some leverage over them but it's the kind of leverage where you have to keep coming back to them to get crumbs. I feel like you can never break through that way due to regulatory capture. You can only do limited damage to them and it's always costly to you. They still have the balance of power.

3 comments

Sorry to break it to you but 10% profit on 6.5M rev is very low and will absolutely not fetch a high multiple, especially considering this is a mature 10 year old business. This is not a high growth business and you may have grown overly rose colored glasses by thinking it could be priced as one.
So much more. What assets/patents do they own? How much money is in the bank? What does their liability sheet look like? How “hot” is their industry right now?

Some time ago I found a good formula to plugin numbers and get a valuation multiple. The questions above were the ones that really moved the multiplier. A major lot of “startups” are in the 1-2x range. The hot ones will peak at 7-12x.

I suppose the industry is not hot right now. EdTech was never really very hot. It was 'luke warm' at best, a decade ago. They own a lot of software, also, they publish their own math textbook (both digital and print). They have licenses with thousands of schools across multiple countries. I don't recall they have any debt.

I feel like they could easily bump up profits by $2 million just by letting go of people... But they could probably double the license cost per student. Although schools don't have much money, they are kind of slow and bureaucratic; set in their ways. It's a small cost for them anyway, once a system is part of the curriculum, they'll probably pay extra to avoid reorganizing the lessons.

As you describe this is largely a cash flow business and the bulk of the value should be extracted via dividends to the benefit of major shareholders.

A tech enabled business needs gross margins north of 70% to be attractive from a leverage standpoint, unless revenue is scaling very rapidly. Without these there’s no attractive exit opportunities.

This is one of the best things I have read today. It resonates deeply with my realizations and experience working in early stage startups.
Why are the margins so low?
They have a lot of employees. I think over 50. Probably more than they need and they re-invest a lot in the business. Also, the cost of $15 per user per year is VERY LOW.
50 employees generating 6.5 mil in yearly sales means the business would barely cover payroll and basic expenses in a first world country. In a lower income country, they can be profitable by taking advantage of cheap labor, but that usually does not scale well to international markets in services.

0.2 % of that is nothing.