[danaris]

This is only true if the degree to which they increase productivity meaningfully rises above the level of noise.

That is to say: "Productivity" is notoriously extremely hard to measure with accuracy and reliability. Other factors such as different (and often terrible) productivity measures, nepotism/cronyism, communication skills, self-marketing skills, and what your manager had for breakfast on the day of performance review are guaranteed to skew the results, and highly likely, in what I would guess is the vast majority of cases, to make any productivity increases enabled by LLMs nearly impossible to detect on a larger scale.

Many people like to operate as if the workplace were a perfectly efficient market system, responding quickly and rationally to changes like productivity increases, but in fact, it's messy and confusing and often very slow. If an idealized system is like looking through a pane of perfectly smooth, clear glass, then the reality is, all too often, like looking through smudgy, warped, clouded bullseye glass into a room half-full of smoke.