[jval]

Lame. Apparently we have been in a bubble since 2007, depending on who you speak to. I recall in a famous YouTube clip circulating at the time that people thought it was ludicrous that Facebook was valued at $16Bn.

Of course people are going to overvalue companies. There are cycles in every industry, where people speculate and get burnt. Does anyone remember the Finance industry in 2007? How that is evidence against startups is beyond me. When the tech bubble fizzles it is going to take down established companies with it, as well as their employees' stock options.

At the end of the day the choice between working in a startup and an established company should be about the quality of the people you work with, not the number of employees.

If you have crap co-workers, it's not a sign that startups generally are bad, but rather a sign that your startup in particular is bad.

[randomdata]

Apparently we have been in a bubble since 2007

Some Google searches show the talk of the bubble going as far back as 2005, if not even late 2004. I wonder what it takes for a bubble to become normal business?

[yiannisbab]

A bubble never really becomes "normal business" and it never will without specific tools that can support it, tools only available to governments (eg. the China bubble).

An honest prediction on when this bubble will burst, would be at the end of the current financial crisis. This is because for now, investors treat take as a safe retreat for their capital, along with German and U.S bonds, gold and over-priced art.

When faith is restored and capital starts flowing towards other industries in equal quantities, this tech bubble will deflate (not burst).

Actually, start ups are more of a new sort of monetary inflation within a certain industry rather than a bubble, now that I come to think of it.

[simantel]

Here's the video you were referencing, circa late 2007: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I6IQ_FOCE6I