Project 2025 is a comprehensive conservative wish list. It's only scary because of the outrageous items mixed in with all the unremarkable ones that any conservative would put forth. You would expect any conservative, even a "good" one, to knock off a huge portion of the list just by virtue of being conservative; that tells us almost nothing about the likelihood of most of the rest of the list (especially from an administration that has at least claimed to disavow it)
Project 2025 is scary because of what it tells us about the American voters that support it, not because it has some sort of prognosticative power over what the Trump admin will actually do. It's about the Overton Window, not the Oval Office.