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by dinfinity 338 days ago
Yep, pretty much this. More information found by searching for "base rate fallacy" or just the Wikipedia page for it:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Base_rate_fallacy

1 comments

Cool. I didn't know the effect of the vaccine is so poor, that you now need to account for statistical biases to see its effect at all. That's less than what i was told, and I'm not happy.

Honestly what a shit vaccine. Measles and Tetanus vax did better.

Cool, so your question was in bad faith, you were not at all prepared to learn, have wasted our time, and you still don't understand anything about the base rate fallacy.

Honestly, what a shit comment.

You did educate me, just not in the way you intended. I thought vaccinated people don't end up at the hospital. Zero. Apparently i was lied to.
You must be a liar or willfully ignorant to say that after the entirety of 2019-2021 happened. The efficacy of vaccines in general and specifically of the various Covid-19 vaccines have been talked about ad nauseam. No even merely scientifically literate person has said that the Covid-19 vaccines (or any vaccine for that matter) are 100% effective.

It's so weird how people will close their eyes for basic science to virtue signal to their group. I sincerely hope you open your mind and prevent your virtue signaling from killing you (or anyone you know) in the next pandemic.

> No even merely scientifically literate person has said that the Covid-19 vaccines (or any vaccine for that matter) are 100% effective.

I can't argue that. I think its a "true scotsman" situation. If i quote the WHO[1] on this, you might just say they are not literate enough.

Take note that they say "Immunity" instead of "Efficacy", that is because it was the knowledge in 2020.

[1] https://www.who.int/news-room/questions-and-answers/item/her...

The rest of your post are personal attacks that do not add to your point.

> If i quote the WHO[1] on this, you might just say they are not literate enough.

This is a page primarily about herd immunity, not about vaccine efficacy. You had to dig to find this (or somebody dug for you).

Having said that, even though they added several sentences on how certain things are unsure or need more research, I will admit that they worded this specific sentence badly: "Vaccinated people are protected from getting the disease in question and passing on the pathogen, breaking any chains of transmission."

It is clearly overstated and does not match the careful wording later on: "We are still learning about immunity to COVID-19. Most people who are infected with COVID-19 develop an immune response within the first few weeks, but we don’t know how strong or lasting that immune response is, or how it differs for different people. There have also been reports of people infected with COVID-19 for a second time."

> The rest of your post are personal attacks that do not add to your point.

They do, because you clearly have a bone to pick that is preventing you from rationally approaching the matter and discussions in general. Think about what point you're actually trying to make and what that has to do with the base rate fallacy. Really, verbalize it. What is it? Why did you feel the need to inject that into the discussion, even though it doesn't belong here at all?