[panabee]

100% agreed. I also advise you not to read many cancer papers, particularly ones investigating viruses and cancer. You would be horrified.

(To clarify: this is not the fault of scientists. This is a byproduct of a severely broken system with the wrong incentives, which encourages publication of papers and not discovery of truth. Hug cancer researchers. They have accomplished an incredible amount while being handcuffed and tasked with decoding the most complex operating system ever designed.)

[briandear]

> this is not the fault of scientists. This is a byproduct of a severely broken system with the wrong incentives, which encourages publication of papers and not discovery of truth

Are scientists not writing those papers? There may be bad incentives, but scientists are responding to those incentives.

[eszed]

That is axiomatically true, but both harsh and useless, given that (as I understand from HN articles and comments) the choice is "play the publishing game as it is" vs "don't be a scientist anymore".

[pyuser583]

I agree, but there is an important side-effect of this statement: it's possible to criticize science, without criticizing scientists. Or at least without criticizing rank and file scientists.

There are many political issues where activists claim "the science has spoken." When critics respond by saying, "the science system is broken and is spitting out garbage", we have to take those claims very seriously.

That doesn't mean the science is wrong. Even though the climate science system is far from perfect, climate change is real and human made.

On the other hand, some of the science on gender medicine is not as established medical associates would have us believe (yet, this might change in a few years). But that doesn't stop reputable science groups from making false claims.

[roughly]

If we’re not going to hold any other sector of the economy personally responsible for responding to incentives, I don’t know why we’d start with scientists. We’ve excused folks working for Palantir around here - is it that the scientists aren’t getting paid enough for selling out, or are we just throwing rocks in glass houses now?

[panabee]

Valid critique, but one addressing a problem above the ML layer at the human layer. :)

That said, your comment has an implication: in which fields can we trust data if incentives are poor?

For instance, many Alzheimer's papers were undermined after journalists unmasked foundational research as academic fraud. Which conclusions are reliable and which are questionable? Who should decide? Can we design model architectures and training to grapple with this messy reality?

These are hard questions.

ML/AI should help shield future generations of scientists from poor incentives by maximizing experimental transparency and reproducibility.

Apt quote from Supreme Court Justice Louis Brandeis: "Sunlight is the best disinfectant."

[jacobr1]

Not a answer, but contributory idea - Meta-analysis. There are plenty of strong meta-analysis out there and one of the things they tend to end up doing is weighing the methodological rigour of the papers along with the overlap they have to the combined question being analyzed. Could we use this weighting explicitly in the training process?

[panabee]

Thanks. This is helpful. Looking forward to more of your thoughts.

Some nuance:

What happens when the methods are outdated/biased? We highlight a potential case in breast cancer in one of our papers.

Worse, who decides?

To reiterate, this isn’t to discourage the idea. The idea is good and should be considered, but doesn’t escape (yet) the core issue of when something becomes a “fact.”

[edwardbernays]

Scientists are responding to the incentives of a) wanting to do science, b) for the public benefit. There was one game in town to do this: the American public grant scheme.

This game is being undermined and destroyed by infamous anti-vaxxer, non-medical expert, non-public-policy expert RFK Jr.[1] The disastrous cuts to the NIH's public grant scheme is likely to amount to $8,200,000,000 ($8.2 trillion USD) in terms of years of life lost.[2]

So, should scientists not write those papers? Should they not do science for public benefit? These are the only ways to not respond to the structure of the American public grant scheme. It seems to me that, if we want better outcomes, then we should make incremental progress to the institutions surrounding the public grant scheme. This seems fair more sensible than installing Bobby Brainworms to burn it all down.

[1] https://youtu.be/HqI_z1OcenQ?si=ZtlffV6N1NuH5PYQ

[2] https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama-health-forum/fullartic...