[bluGill]

Percentages don't work like this. It isn't a 3% change in rate, it is a doubling of the rate, and that will break the budget. You can find mortgage calculators to run whatever numbers you want, but it is hard to find any realistic scenario where it is less than $500/month, and for many over $1000/month. That amount of money will break any budget.

I expect home prices to go down long term if interest rates remain as they are. However home prices are a lagging indicator and so it will take years for the interest rate changes to cause that change. (and over those years other things will happen meaning we will never be able to figure out how much change is because of rates and how much because of other factors)

[ted_dunning]

Percentages don't work like that, either. Since buyers are mostly bound by available monthly budget, raising interest rates increases effective price, which lowers demand at a particular price point which drives total purchase price back down to get the monthly mortgage price closer to affordable.

Obviously, this feedback isn't entirely effective because buyers can simply opt out or delay a purchase but it does have substantial effect.

Thus, increasing interest does not have the full impact as predicted by assuming that purchase price is fixed.