| I am not two years out of date. Everything you said aligns with my assessment. Their 5nm yields are horrendous. I guess my mistake was assuming they would ship it considering how rough it is financially, but they probably will for bragging rights. > You could buy phones with SMIC 7nm chips as early as mid 2024, that means yields were good enough around mid 2023. That was a halo product > The impressive part is that this is catching up with ASML+TSMC combined. Without euv, they are mining diminishing returns. > There's no other company or government in the world that has achieved this vertical in the last few decades. No, they had the advantage of copying and learning from decades of industry experience. Don’t get me wrong, it’s impressive, but expecting Chinese leadership in this space by 2030 is foolish. Of course, I’m never going to rule out anyone’s long term success, but there is no indication they’re in any position of leadership. |
Not sure why you are basing your whole argument on euv. There's nothing magical about it that prevents them from stealing/reinventing it.