[ptero]

While true, the world doesn't end in 2025. While I would also agree that big financial benefits from agents to companies appear unlikely to arrive this year (and the title specifically mentions 2025) I would bet on agents becoming a disruptive technology in the next 5-10 years. My 2c.

[corentin88]

Why this timeline? What’s missing today that would make it possible in 5-10 years?

[ptero]

Just empirical observations. It takes time to propagate technology down to general businesses and business methods up to technology developers. The "propagate down to business methods" is the slower path, as it requires business leaders to become familiar enough with technology to get ideas on how to leverage it.

This is not a new observation -- Clark's note on overestimating short term and underestimating long term impact of technology is one of my favorite patterns. My 2c.

[chelmzy]

This is what I try to explain to people who ask "If LLMs are so good why haven't they replaced workers?". Well it takes a long time for the railroads to be built. What use is a locomotive without rails?

[queenkjuul]

Better models?

Claude Code is impressive but it still produces quite a bit of garbage in my experience, and coding agents are likely to be the best agents around for the foreseeable future.