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by corimaith 340 days ago
Instead of using vague abstractions like "pouring unlimited money" and "hiring the right people", I'd hope that predictions would be predicated more on the actual specifics of the progress being made, i.e what are specific engineering problems to be overcome and what is their progress in doing so. If it's not, it's really just astrology one is using.

The Chinese perspective itself certainly isn't anything close to these vague abstractions, outside of vague anti-western polemics or nationalist chest-beating. After all with the same logic we're pouring a "manhattan's worth of funding" into "AI", dosen't mean we're going to be reaching Gen-AI anytime soon!
2 comments
jacquesm 340 days ago
Industrial espionage is a thing. China has so far managed to get every tech they ever wanted and I don't see why EUV could not be stolen. Everything, even very advanced technology, can be reverse engineered, especially if you already know conceptually what it does. Software and data (and blueprints) can be stolen as well. ASML and TSMC have a lot of security in place but at least on HN I would assume everybody knows that that does not guarantee perfection. If the knowledge is out there, it will spread.
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karlgkk 338 days ago
> I don't see why EUV could not be stolen

> Everything, even very advanced technology, can be reverse engineered, especially if you already know conceptually what it does

This isn't true. Maybe for software it is. Manufacturing is one of the hardest stages, and China lacks tooling for the ultra-high precision engineering required to actually implement this process.

It's kind of like building a nuclear bomb - conceptually it's easy. Hell, the first nuke was dropped before the microwave oven was commercially available.

The real challenge is manufacturing the damn thing. Refining all of that uranium is not an easy task - even today.

China has spent billions of USD equivalent trying to copy EUV. They have had access to EUV installations and fully disassembled them (funny story: they broke it putting it back together).

They are highly motivated, they have a ton of money, and frankly, they're no a bunch of dummies.

And yet, they still don't have it. (fwiw i think they will by the end of 2030)

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fooker 340 days ago
> dosen't mean we're going to be reaching Gen-AI anytime soon!

I disagree. We already have, by anyone's standards from 2021.

We keep shifting the bar, somewhat intentionally so that progress doesn't stall.

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