[GianFabien]

Contrarians betting against the herd have often been very successful. For example, John Paulson and Michael Burry made billions by shorting CDOs that lead to the 2008 crisis. The movie "The Big Short" is an Ok dramatization of how it all unfolded.

Same herd mentality, different soapbox.

[Corgipower12]

I wonder if it is because we hear about people who are successful betting against the herd.

[Ekaros]

Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent... We just rarely present those who became insolvent unless it was massive screwup. And even then, well they don't get movies.

[mathgeek]

This is certainly part of it. The survivors write the narrative.

[antifa]

Are they actually contrarians or are they people who were looking deeply into the topic and noticed both a bubble and an opportunity?

[chistev]

"Be greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy"???

[kylecazar]

I'd say the short was more like "when others are greedy, be greedy and aware".

Buying the assets once the markets had already collapsed, and they were undervalued, would have been more of a Warren Buffet thing to do.

[chistev]

what does it mean to be aware?

[Corgipower12]

My 2 cents TLDR: seize opportunity but based on sound analysis and caution, not blind optimism. I think they are saying something of the effect of:

1. The short trade (The Big Short or similar trades during the housing bubble) happened during a period of market euphoria. I.e. when most investors were irrationally confident and greedy.

2. Instead of sitting out or being fearful (as Buffett's original advice would suggest), the people who shorted the market took an aggressive position. They were indeed "greedy" in the sense of seeking profit, but they did so with deep awareness of the systemic risk that others were ignoring.

[kylecazar]

Precisely my take, thanks for the elaboration!