| > crucially selling the appreciated home after XX years Selling depends on demographics, the economy, and immigration. I'm in New Zealand where a lot of workers emigrate, and NZ patches that issue up with immigration. I read about €1 houses in Italy and ¥1 houses in Japan and then watch "South Korea is over" https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Ufmu1WD2TSk Modelling risks is the hardest part of any investment calculation. Edit: the future value matters, and we get highly misled by looking at our experiences of historical results (especially don't expect to get the same results as your parent's generation). Personally, thinking of your house purely as an investment is undesirable. You want to live there joyfully and not have to worry about pleasing the next investors. The non financial upsides and downsides of your own home are more important than the investment. There are significant upsides and massive downsides: they are hard to balance. I've rented a lot so I know that too has its advantages and disadvantages. There are large financial upsides and downsides of your own home too. Geared lending is fantastic and dangerous, domicile taxation issues, regulations, yearly government fees that can screw your retirement. You don't really own your home, you have a license that you can sell. A home is really just a glorified longterm tenancy with two bigger landlords (the bank and your government). |