[stopping]

I've done the math on this many times, and it still puzzles me how anybody would choose to buy a house in the Bay Area today versus renting an equivalent one. When mortgages are over 2x rent, the calculation skews tremendously in favor of renting and investing the difference in an index fund. This considers all possible factors and even chooses favorable conditions for homeowners (high appreciation, low stock market returns, high rent increases y/y). The permanent costs of owning a home (property tax, insurance, HOA, maintenance) are typically around 40% of rent, but can be even higher for certain types of property.

My conclusion every time I've done this exercise is that you should only buy a house in the Bay if you have way more money than you know what to do with. The difference in opportunity cost is absolutely massive, on the order of half a million today-dollars or more for a 3-bedroom SFH. That's a huge price to pay for the "privileges" of homeownership.

[dekhn]

This is my conclusion (and the path I've taken - basically max our index and retirement accounts).

I've explained this to people and been told I'm stupid and irrational. Another thing I saw was families moving from the. midwest to the bay area (to work for FAANG) and getting tons of pressure from their back-home families to buy a house, and then spend a miserable decade living in a Sunnyvale housing complex.

Our plan is to wait for kids to leave home, retire somewhat early and buy a modest house in an area with lower costs and a political climate I can tolerate.

[archagon]

If you're in a place with good tenant protections (rent control), then yes. And it's true that large swaths of the Bay Area fall in this category. But otherwise, the threat of arbitrary rent increases and/or eviction can be overwhelming if you're looking for long-term stability.

[burnt-resistor]

I would need to make $550k/year to afford to buy a home where I grew up in San Jose.

The conflagration of Prop 13 and an unregulated influx of rich people from all over the US and the world ultra-gentrified the Bay Area beyond the small crust of billionaires and marginal millionaires and a sea of middle class-ish people. There were no meaningful, comprehensive supply or demand protections post Prop 13.