[kasabali]

No I don't, but then, how bad it could be? As bad as Samsung's 8nm? Or Intel's 10nm? Even they delivered something in the end. What did GF deliver? A whole fucking nothing. Samsung had Nvidia and Qualcomm as their customers even with its, ehm, not so good 8nm process. It was a sure bet GF was going to have some customers as long as they delivered something (and I don't even count AMD's wafer supply agreement).

[kragen]

It could be arbitrarily bad. 1% yields, 0.01% yields, 0.00001% yields. Having to write each wafer with an electron beam because they couldn't get EUV to work at 7nm.

[kasabali]

It could be, but on the other hand it could be freaking fantastic, too. The only way we'd know if they've fucking did it, which is my point.

Since it didn't happen, the only thing we know is what they said and they said it was because of "strategic shift"

> Tom Caulfield also mentioned GF needed $3 billion dollars of additional capital to get to 12,000 wpm and they could only fund half of it through cash flow, they would have to borrow the other half and the projected return wasn’t good.

> When Tom took over as CEO he went out on the road and visited GF’s customers. What he found was a lack of commitment to GF’s 7 nm process in the customer base. Many customers were never going to go to 7 nm and of the customers who were, GF wouldn’t have enough capacity to meet their demands. There was also concern in the customer base that 7 nm would take up all the R&D and capital budgets and starve the other processes they wanted to use of investment.

(https://semiwiki.com/wikis/company-wikis/globalfoundries-wik...)

[exmadscientist]

I think the proof of the pudding is in the eating: it's been seven years since the cancellation of 7LP. They have launched nothing even near the leading edge since 12LP+.

If 7LP worked, given this market and its hunger for capacity, it'd be in production at at least small scale. Equipment costs are down and knowledge has disseminated, making it a lot cheaper to launch, especially as "7nm" isn't the leading edge any more.

I don't think it works.

[kasabali]

> I don't think it works.

Duh. Of course it doesn't work, because they cancelled it in 2018!

> making it a lot cheaper to launch, especially as "7nm" isn't the leading edge any more.

Same logic cuts both ways. If they didn't think it was financially viable in 2018 when it'd be a leading edge process and their customers would be willing to pay top dollar for it, why would they think it'd be feasible now when it isn't the leading edge lithography and nobody would be paying top dollar for it?

On top of that I doubt even your claim that it'd be cheaper to do the investment now would hold given how everything got more expensive since 2018. I'm also doubtful that machines got cheaper since ASML is still the only ones building them and they've probably got their hands full with their existing customers. They'd probably laugh at GloFo if they'd come with a request like that "Sorry GloFo, we're already booked until 2030 building machines for TSMC, Intel and Samsung maybe try at 2032" :P

GloFo got off the train and there's no going back.

[exmadscientist]

Crudely speaking, industrial R&D has three phases: proof of concept, de-risking, and manufacturing. 7LP might (or might not) have passed the proof of concept stage. De-risking is usually the hardest stage (such that many people don't even consider it a stage, preferring to break it down into smaller stages). It is highly likely that this is where they decided to cut bait. (Incidentally, de-risking is usually heavy opex in the R&D department whereas HVM/NPI is mostly heavy capex; while "just" an accounting trick, this can be significant in many companies, and create a real barrier if the necessary opex spend is not palatable.)

The reason one would expect 7LP to be cheaper to launch now is that their competitors have got equivalent processes into production that can be learned from, or even "learned from" (ripped off). Equipment suppliers have debugged their offerings and pruned their lines to what's useful. In short, someone else has derisked it and found what works. That is a major advantage. In other industries, one company doing the derisking can launch an entire industry (see, Apple, iPhone) if moats are low. Moats are very, very, very high in the foundry space, so there are not many companies that could copy TSMC 7FF or Intel 7 even if they wanted to. GlobalFoundries could do it. But they choose not to. If they were on the cusp of a node introduction, they'd love to see their competition swoop in and solve the last problems for them. Sure, it makes them late to market, but at a vastly lower total spend to enter the market (one with tremendous moats and limited competition!). They could probably profit off that.

But they don't want to. So, either, leading-edge process nodes are uneconomical (in which case, good riddance, leave the market), or they don't actually have significant R&D effort completed and are still billions of dollars in R&D opex away from having anything viable. In which case... nothing of real value was lost.

So, yeah, it sucks that we lost a competitor. But I don't think we lost GF on the leading edge because they didn't like the color of paint on the new ion-implanter's frame. I think we lost them because they didn't have a product and they knew it. In which case there is nothing to mourn.