[TeMPOraL]

Nah, the vendors have generally been open about the limits of scaling. The bet isn't on that one last order of magnitude increase will hit a miracle - the bet is on R&D figuring out a new way to get better model performance before the last one hits diminishing returns. Which, for now, is what's been consistently happening.

There's risk to that assumption, but it's also a reasonable one - let's not forget the whole field is both new and has seen stupid amounts of money being pumped into it over the last few years; this is an inflationary period, there's tons of people researching every possible angle, but that research takes time. It's a safe bet that there are still major breakthroughs ahead us, to be achieved within the next couple years.

The risky part for the vendors is whether they'll happen soon enough so they can capitalize on them and keep their lead (and profits) for another year or so until the next breakthrough hits, and so on.