[ben_w]

That's certainly a valid way of looking at their abilities at any given task — "The question of whether a computer can think is no more interesting than the question of whether a submarine can swim".

But when the question is "are they going to more important to the economy than humans?", then they have to be good at basically everything a human can do, otherwise we just see a variant of Amdahl's law in action and the AI perform an arbitrary speed-up of n % of the economy while humans are needed for the remaining 100-n %.

I may be wrong, but it seems to me that the ARC prize is more about the latter.

[IanCal]

> are they going to more important to the economy than humans?", then they have to be good at basically everything a human can do,

I really don’t think that’s the case. A robot that can stack shelves faster than a human is more valuable at that job than someone who can move items and also appreciate comedy. One that can write software more reliably than person X is more valuable than them at that job even if X is well rounded and can do cryptic crosswords and play the guitar.

Also many tasks they can be worse but cheaper.

I do wonder how many tasks something like o3 or o3 pro can’t do as well as a median employee.

[ben_w]

> I really don’t think that’s the case. A robot that can stack shelves faster than a human is more valuable at that job than someone who can move items and also appreciate comedy.

Yes, until all the shelves are stacked and that is no longer your limiting factor.

> One that can write software more reliably than person X is more valuable than them at that job even if X is well rounded and can do cryptic crosswords and play the guitar.

Cryptic crosswords and guitar playing are already something computers can do, so they're not great examples.

Consider a different example: "computer" used to be a job title of a person who computes. A single Raspberry Pi model zero, given away for free on a magazine cover at launch, can do this faster than the entire human population combined even if we all worked at the speed of the world record holder 24/7. But that wasn't enough to replace all human labour.

[tedy1996]

AFAIK 55% of PRs written by latest GPT model get approved.